Call it 1996: Perhaps one of hockey’s most classic — and certainly most vicious — rivalries has regained its luster.
The Red Wings and Avalanche prepare for back-to-back tilts against one another, starting with ABC’s Saturday matinee broadcast in Detroit. Maybe it’s not the blood feud it once was, but both clubs sit atop the NHL, and it’s been a good 20 years since that was the case.
Colorado is running away with the season. It leads the league with 79 points and has dominated in both raw and advanced metrics — so much so that FanDuel has its own “Avalanche” section, where curated markets for Stanley Cup and Rocket Richard futures are listed so the house can bank all the chalky investments on Nathan Mackinnon.
Mackinnon had a four-goal jump on Connor McDavid for the league lead with 38. He’s No. 4 overall in expected goals and scores 1.98 per 60 minutes per MoneyPuck.
That kind of scoring acumen alongside Cale Makar’s all-world talents on the backend has always put the Avalanche in the conversation, but they have filled a long-time essential need in goaltending. Scott Wedgewood has emerged late in his career to bolster the Avalanche to the fewest team goals against (129) and the highest team save percentage (.907), both of which are league-best marks.
With this elite core in place and excellent scoring depth, the Avalanche win with overwhelming forechecking and a speedy transition game that sparks chances off the rush. Their 5-on-5 rates in expected goals and shot attempt differential rank in the top two.
Every great team faces its adversity, however, and after recording a 10-game win streak twice this season, we’ve seen some returning to Earth in January. The Avalanche are reeling from back-to-back multi-goal losses to Ottawa and Montreal.
Makar is missing his stalwart partner in Devon Toews due to a day-to-day injury and some defensive breakdowns have cost them. That’s aside from a slothful power play that has fallen to No. 29 overall.
Steve Yzerman’s long-term rebuild plan looks near its end as the Red Wings are on pace to make the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, sitting two points out of first in the Atlantic Division. They’ve accomplished this turnaround with a batch of young, show-stopping talent in Lucas Raymond and Alex Debrincat, who are the only two names that sit between Mackinnon and McDavid amongst the league’s top-four players in expected goals.
It’s stars like Raymond and DeBrincat that exemplify how a successful rebuild should result, and that’s one with complementary skillsets as opposed to homogenous talent. Raymond powers Detroit’s top line as a creative playmaker aside from Dylan Larkin’s speed, while DeBrincat has blossomed into a strong two-way player and scoring threat with the veteran seasoning of Patrick Kane and Andrew Copp.
Betting on the NHL?
Even though the Red Wings are rebounding from a pair of losses themselves and may not match Colorado as a 5-on-5 presence, they’re in a more confident stint of their season and boast a top-10 power play.
With the morale around Kane becoming the all-time leading U.S.-born scorer in Thursday’s 4-3 shootout loss to Washington, the Wings have exciting home underdog value to beat the team everyone’s afraid to fade.
THE PLAY: Red Wings (+130, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.