An injury bit us in the rear end last week when the Dolphins star running back went down with a torn ACL, ending his game in the first half and his season.
We move on to Week 4, still hovering around the Mendoza line on the regular line on straight bets, and now long shots are tumbling a bit as well.
Injuries happen; hopefully you wagered with a book that has injury insurance, but we’re not counting those on the official record.
They go down as a loss.
We move into Week 4 with plenty to look forward to in the player prop market.
RECORD: 4-4 (+0.02 units) | Long shots: 1-5 (+.15 units)
NFL Week 4 player props, picks, best bets
Christian Watson anytime touchdown scorer (+165, BetMGM) | 2+ touchdowns scored (12/1, FanDuel)
Christian Watson is perhaps my favorite wide receiver to back this week.
Some fantasy football experts, including FantasyLife’s Dwain McFarland, have him ranked among the top 10 receivers of the week, with McFarland ranking him No. 7.
Watson has vowed to put on a show in Tampa Bay this weekend, as it is his homecoming, having been from the area. Watson is fifth in the league in yards per route run, while the Buccaneers are 20th in DVOA against the pass.
TreVeyon Henderson over 49.5 rushing yards (37.6 percent, Kalshi) | 90+ rushing yards (+1040, DraftKings)
It’s befuddling that Rhamondre Stevenson is still the starter in New England, but TreVeyon Henderson has an impressive history against the Buffalo Bills.
Last year, Henderson really put his best foot forward against the Bills, rushing for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries in a game Stevenson also played in.
I’m buying low on Henderson, as I believe he will put together a big game on Sunday in a must-win game where they need him involved.
Betting on the NFL?
Jauan Jennings over 2.5 receptions (48.5 percent, Polymarket) | Over 4.5 receptions (+575, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Miami is terrible in just about every way, but they’re particularly embarrassing against the pass.
The Dolphins are allowing an embarrassing 9.1 yards per pass attempt, by far the worst figure in the NFL. With Justin Jefferson listed out, many are backing Jordan Addison to take a serious step into the top slot in the Vikings pecking order.
I’ll take the second receiver, as Jauan Jennings profiles as the underneath receiver who can lead the Vikings in receptions this weekend.
Jennings received 80 percent of the snaps for the Vikings after Jefferson went out, and I expect him to get a great target share for Murray, who doesn’t really push the ball downfield.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
