Week 3 is history; Week 4 is a mystery.
We move on to October football, having beaten some good lines, including last week, when we nailed the Falcons +7 on Monday before the move to +4.5 when Michael Penix Jr. was unsurprisingly listed as active.
Atlanta wound up winning outright as significant underdogs with the Packers’ season appearing to be on life support.
We also beat the line on Saints -3 against the Raiders, as New Orleans closed at -3.5, though they lost as favorites.
The goal, of course, is to beat the line for hedge opportunities, but it’s also a nice added bonus to win the bets.
NFL Week 4 early predictions
Patriots +7 (DraftKings) vs. Bills
This is a classic buy-low spot on the Patriots, who have looked horrid through three weeks.
Most books are moving this line to Bills -6.5, so you’ll want to snag the touchdown while it’s still there.
We all know the Patriots have fallen off a cliff this year, but there’s still a semblance of the team that went to the Super Bowl just seven months ago.
The preseason line on this had the Bills favored by three so you’re getting a four point discount in my eyes even with the AJ Brown injury.
Betting on the NFL?
Giants +1.5 (DraftKings) vs. Cardinals
This line is completely different than what we saw preseason.
Big Blue was favored by seven points in the preseason lookahead line, but some strong play by the Cardinals combined with the Jaxson Dart injury has forced an eight and a half point line move.
I’m not super confident in the Giants to win this game, but I think there’s a chance that the 1.5-point spread moves in the Giants’ favor with the acquisition of J.J. McCarthy on Monday.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
