NFL Week 1 was a blast, and we head into Week 2 with some real momentum.
The goal of this weekly betting column isn’t just to win the bets (that certainly helps), but it’s also to achieve closing line value that is bettable on the other side for a potential middle spot.
Last week we hammered the Jets +2.5; they closed +1 and won outright. We snagged under 39.5, which easily won, though the line didn’t move as I predicted it might.
We also bet on the Browns +9; it closed +8, but they got annihilated by the Jaguars.
Each of the three wagers achieved our goal of beating the closing line and two produced results.
We look to Week 2 for our early predictions and target a few key numbers this coming weekend.
NFL Week 2 early predictions
Giants (+7, Caesars) vs. Rams
Anyone else see that “Sunday Night Football” masterclass?
The Giants have made things clear: ball control, time of possession, and limiting turnovers are the keys to victory. In their 28-20 win over the Cowboys, John Harbaugh’s group went back to playing old-school, hard-nosed football the way he has always wanted.
And respect to Jaxson Dart, who starred for the Giants on Sunday night and had the top quarterback performance in Week 1 based on Expected Points Added per play and Win Probability Added per play.
The Rams just lost Myles Garrett for the foreseeable future, and who knows if Aaron Donald will play. If Los Angeles can’t stay off the field, I suspect the Giants will keep this game within a field goal.
Rally around Big Blue; they’re going to be a pain to play and exhausting to defend against.
Betting on the NFL?
Patriots (-5.5, bet365) vs. Steelers
New England just lost AJ Brown, so there will be some Debbie-downers out there who will be negative about their outlook. I’ll take a different approach.
Let’s start with how horrible the Steelers looked. Seriously, they may have lost outright to the Cooper Rush-led Atlanta Falcons if it weren’t for a herculean play by TJ Watt, in which he intercepted a dump-off and returned it to the house when it was a three-point game.
New England has a massive rest advantage as well; they’ll be on 11 days’ rest while 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers may be feeling the effects of Sunday’s slugfest with a bad defense.
According to Sumer Sports, the Falcons-Steelers game was ranked 1,069th in total Expected Points Added (EPA) out of a data set that includes 1,097 games.
I watched way too much of the Steelers on Sunday, and the Patriots are being disrespected as 5.5-point home favorites.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
