Post sports gambling editor/producer and digital sports editor Matt Ehalt is back for his second season in the NFL Bettor’s Guide.
Patriots (+4.5) over Seahawks
It seems there are very few people who believe the Patriots can actually win this game outside of those in New England.
The Seahawks have the better roster, downed tougher foes on their way to Super Bowl 2026, and have the ingredients to slow down Drake Maye.
We agree that the Seahawks are the superior team, but there’s just something about this Patriots team that leads us to believe this game will be close.
Let’s start with all the doubt that has been thrown their way.
Yes, they have enjoyed a ridiculously easy path to this point. They played a cupcake schedule filled with pushovers, landing Justin “Is he now a playoff choker?” Herbert, without his offensive tackles in the first round, faced CJ “Hey Sam, how do I stop seeing ghosts” Stroud in the second round and then battled uninspiring backup Jarrett Stidham in snowy conditions in the AFC Championship game.
There are also questions about Drake Maye’s health after landing hard on his shoulder in the 10-7 win over the Broncos, plus his skittish play this postseason.
Add in that Seattle’s offense and defense have been humming in the playoffs, and it’s easy to see why everyone and their mother is backing the Seahawks.
While those factors may make it easy to fade the Patriots, we’re gonna zag here.
Sure, the easy schedule thing may expose the Patriots on Sunday, or it may just be that New England was a really good team this year, regardless of the schedule.
Winning games in the NFL is hard, no matter the opponent.
The Patriots have the 2025 MVP runner up in quarterback Maye, a stout rushing attack with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, plus capable weapons in the passing game.
The defense has put on a clinic this postseason, holding the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos to 26 combined points (9.7 points per game).
Again, we’re not gonna pretend that the Herbert-Stroud-Stidham trio is imposing. But this is still the NFL, and heck, Bryce Young scored 28 points in his lone playoff game vs. the Rams.
We’ll assume the Patriots will try to get Christian Gonzalez on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to limit the 2025 receiving yards champion’s production, which is far from guaranteed.
All of this may not matter if the Patriots can’t protect Maye, who has been sacked 15 times this postseason and is facing a Seattle defense that ranked seventh with 47 regular-season sacks.
But with two weeks to prepare, expect Josh McDaniels to come up with a good strategy.
Take the points here with a live underdog.
For the total, we’re going to take the Over.
Both teams went over their project totals in more than half of their games this season, with the Patriots doing so 12 of 20 times and the Seahawks accomplishing the feat 11 of 19 times, per covers.com.
That includes three of five postseason games, with both Seattle games topping their projections.
Seattle is averaging 34 points per game this postseason and just tallied 31 against a stout Rams defense, showing they can score against strong units.
While we are taking the Patriots to keep this game close, even if it turns into a blowout — something in the 31-17 range for the Seahawks — we’ll be clear of the 45.5 mark.
We also trust the Patriots’ offense in such a scenario to manage points while trailing.
BETS: Patriots +4.5 (+100, BetMGM) | Over 45.5 (-110) | Parlay (+240)
Conference championships: 1-1; Broncos (W); Rams (L)
Postseason: 3-3
Regular season: 14-19-3
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Matt Ehalt has been picking against the spread since his childhood days when he entered his father’s newspaper pool and even took the top prize on more than one occasion. He specializes in NFL wagers and is quite successful with NCAA brackets.