The Los Angeles Lakers have undergone a transformation over the past month. The record has been good all season, but they ended February outscoring their opponents by a total of 4 points over 59 games.
Then the NBA calendar flipped, and suddenly March Madness wasn’t reserved for only college hoops.
Luka Doncic went on a scoring frenzy, the defense ticked up significantly, and the Lakers put together their longest win streak of the season, nine games, to surge up the Western Conference standings, jumping from sixth to third over the course of a 15-2 month.
The Lakers get to test whether their resurgence is real against the only team that had a better month than they did: the Oklahoma City Thunder. While the Lakers were finding themselves, the Thunder continued to handle business with relative ease and became the first team to cross 60 wins this season, thanks to a 14-1 record in March.
Lakers vs. Thunder prediction, best bets
This game won’t have much bearing on whether these teams will meet later down the line in the playoffs, but the Thunder have already won the first two meetings, and the Lakers will certainly be looking to prove that they can hang with the reigning champs.
Doncic specifically was unreal in March, becoming just the 10th player in NBA history to score 600 points in a single month, according to ESPN’s Dave McMenamin. He’s also the first player since Michael Jordan in 1987 to top 600 points in the month of March.
He’ll be difficult to slow down, but the Thunder are one of the teams uniquely suited to making life relatively difficult for Doncic and the Lakers.
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Doncic only played in one of the two previous games against the Thunder and was suffocated by Oklahoma City’s defense — he shot just 7-for-20 from the floor and was a season-worst minus-31 in his 32 minutes.
Cason Wallace gave him issues all night, as did Alex Caruso, and both men will certainly draw the assignment of guarding Doncic in this game. Jalen Williams, who wasn’t healthy for that game, is expected to play in Thursday’s matchup and will provide another roadblock for Doncic.
On the offensive side of the ball, there’s reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is likely to take home the hardware once again this season.
As good as Doncic was in March, SGA was spectacular in his own right. He was the only other player to average 30 points per game over the month, and he put his stamp on a few signature wins that came down to clutch time.
Much has been made of the Lakers’ ability to win close games, but the Thunder were 7-0 in games that featured clutch time last month, and Gilgeous-Alexander led the league in field goals in clutch-time during March.
The Thunder’s ability to not only thrive in those situations but also completely take over games is unmatched. Their defense gets stops and turnovers better than most, and their closer has come up big whenever the moment requires it.
Expect the Thunder to show the Lakers the difference between a hot stretch and championship mettle.
The Pick: Thunder -8.5 (-110, BetRivers)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
