The 2026 NBA playoffs felt like a fever dream the entire world experienced together.
It wasn’t just the wild Knicks run to the championship.
The Spurs went from a feel-good story to a potential NBA title contender over the span of a month. The Thunder, who looked nearly unbeatable all playoffs, finally showed some cracks and also became one of the most hated teams in recent memory in the process.
The Pistons nearly lost in the first round to an eight seed after winning 60 games, then lost a Game 7 at home by 31 points in the second round.
Fans disparage the regular season for being numbingly predictable over the course of six months, but playoffs typically make up for that in the spring.
The dichotomy between the two makes picking a champion at the end of the season that much more challenging. A great regular season can end up meaning nothing, and a lackluster one can give way to the end of 53 years of misery.
Looking back at the playoffs can be helpful to see which teams came close to a different fate but fell short of the ultimate goal. The Spurs and Thunder both fit that bill, which is why they are the two favorites at the sportsbook.
The Spurs can point to their inexperience — they squandered double-digit leads in every game of the Finals — as the reason why things didn’t go their way. They have the best defensive player in the NBA and returned the same core with minor upgrades around the edges.
The Thunder had injuries hit their key players at the worst possible time. The end of their championship bench became a cap casualty, which means they aren’t quite as deep as they once were.
Still, it’s more likely than not that one of those two teams represents the Western Conference in the Finals.
In the East, the Knicks breezed through the Cavaliers in the Conference Finals, and Cleveland’s offseason move of adding Peyton Watson isn’t enough to make them an attractive pick to get over the hump.
Betting on the NBA?
The Knicks themselves have some questions after the front office let Mitchell Robinson walk to the Celtics for nothing, then started a contract war with three of its core rotation players. There’s a good chance the team manages to ignore the noise and return to its postseason form, but the reigning champions need every advantage they can find to snap the current repeat drought in the NBA.
The East has other teams ready to fill the void if the Knicks can’t find their championship chemistry. The Celtics now have the necessary size they lacked last season and have quality depth if head coach Joe Mazzulla is willing to use it.
The Pacers are also a team to watch with Tyrese Haliburton back running the offense. He is a game-changer at point guard whose impact on offense isn’t fully captured in the box score. On defense, the Pacers could be a top-10 unit with Ivica Zubac anchoring the paint.
Ultimately, I think the Spurs will be the team to beat this season, but the Pacers are a good longshot bet to target before things tip off.
The Picks: Spurs NBA Champion (+270, Caesars) | Pacers NBA Champion (40-1, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
