The Knicks looked leaky in Game 3, and it’s difficult to have much faith in a turnaround for Game 4.
Mike Brown’s group comes in as a 2.5-point favorite on Kalshi in Game 4, the same as they were in their four-point Game 3 loss.
The Knicks did a wonderful job hanging around and were within range to steal another game, but the Spurs didn’t look tired one bit, as many Knicks fans had hoped.
San Antonio may be exhausted after just one day of rest going into Game 4, but I have serious reservations over whether the Knicks will prevail at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday. And that’s after factoring in reasonable positive regression in the free-throw department. The Knicks have been outshot on the charity stripe attempts, 84 to 61, through three games.
Ahead of Monday’s Game 3, my model had the Spurs favored 109.36 to 108.05, and I see no reason that this changes in Game 4.
San Antonio played much better defense in the fourth quarter; their only problems arise when the offense goes stagnant, and it becomes the De’Aaron Fox show rather than Victor Wembanyama roaming to the basket.
The Knicks will need big performances from Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns to win on Wednesday, which is certainly possible.
I’m projecting another rock fight in Game 4, where both teams struggle to make big shots and offenses stagnate at times.
I think that actually favors the Spurs, who have a better half-court offense, as the Knicks have had way too many zero-pass possessions where Jalen Brunson dribbles the ball to the end of the shot clock.
I’ll ride with my model here and take the Spurs +2.5, as this could easily be a tight game where the Knicks win by a point or two, with a very narrow margin between the two squads.
Off a loss, the Knicks are 14-17 against the spread, which is surprisingly bad considering they’re in the NBA Finals.
Betting on the NBA?
After a win, the Spurs are 38-34 against the spread, one of the best figures in the NBA.
THE PLAY: Spurs +2.5 (-114, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
