The stop-start nature of the Mets’ season continued with a 7-2 loss to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday afternoon at Citi Field.
The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Amazin’s, but that stretch came on the heels of a 1-4 schneid.
The Mets will hope to get right back on the rails with a win Thursday, and the oddsmakers like their chances of doing just that.
The Mets are a -162 favorite to take the rubber match at Citi Field, and the Over/Under is sitting at 7.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds, prediction
The low total paints this as a pitchers’ duel, but there are some signals that push back against that projection.
While Nolan McLean has largely impressed in his first two outings this season, he hasn’t been able to pitch deep into either one of his assignments.
The 24-year-old went five innings in his 2026 debut against the Pirates, and then went one out further in his second outing.
McLean was still effective, posting a 2.61 ERA and striking out 12 across those two starts, but he’s not been terribly efficient, and the Mets will certainly err on the side of caution with their promising hurler’s workload.
The Diamondbacks will counter McLean with veteran Eduardo Rodriguez.
The southpaw is off and running in 2026 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two starts, but the sample size we have for the 33-year-old tells us to expect a dip in form.
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At this point in his career, Rodriguez pitches to induce weak contact, but his inability to get swings and misses means his margin for error is quite thin.
We saw that last season when Rodriguez pitched to a 5.01 ERA and allowed a .353 wOBA, which was one of the worst marks among qualified pitchers.
Neither of these lineups is striking fear into anyone yet this season — especially with Juan Soto on the sidelines for the Mets — but the low Over/Under is giving too much respect to the starting pitchers.
The Play: Over 7 (-115, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
