The college football betting market is a reflection of the sport.
It’s volatile, and bandwagons fill up as quickly as they empty. One performance, whether good or bad, can change how a team is perceived by fans, pundits, and bettors alike.
Maintaining a cool head amidst the chaos and not overreacting to a one-game sample is essential to being successful long-term in handicapping this wild sport.
It will be tough to do that for Saturday’s Noon ET kickoff between Michigan and No. 11 Oklahoma.
Not only because the Wolverines looked discombobulated in their controversial win over Western Michigan at the Big House, but also because of how the team and its fans handled their last-gasp win over the Broncos.
Not many people will want to bet their hard-earned money on a team that celebrates a win over a four-score underdog like they won the Super Bowl.
Unfortunately, you need to try to put that all aside for Saturday, because the line for Oklahoma’s visit to Ann Arbor has gotten out of control.
After opening as a 2.5-point underdog in the Game of the Year market, the Sooners are now a 5.5-point road favorite Saturday.
That’s a crazy swing on the heels of just one game, even for a team that looked as poor as Michigan did.
While Michigan needed a gift from the zebras and then the gods to defeat a team from the MAC, the Sooners crushed UTEP, 51-0, in Week 1. They ticked every box you want from a playoff-hopeful in a curtain-raiser against cannon fodder.
That said, the Oklahoma offense will face a much stiffer test Saturday.
As poor as Michigan’s attack looked in Week 1, the defense did its thing by holding the Broncos to just 12 points and 3.2 yards per play despite spending 40 minutes on the field.
Had the Wolverines gotten anything going on offense, they could have crushed the Broncos.
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I’m not expecting Michigan’s offense to turn into the 1999 Rams against a terrific defense, but I do think that Jay Hill’s defense can keep the Wolverines in this game to stay within this number.
You won’t find many people looking to back the Wolverines after the shenanigans they pulled Saturday, so be patient and wait for the best price possible.
The Play: Michigan +5.5 (-105, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
