Three parts of the world are at extreme risk of wildfires as climate change intensifies warns the Met Office.
The weather service issued an alert for sensitive ecosystems like the African savannas, parts of Australia and Siberia.
Despite human efforts to manage and reduce fires, climate-driven factors such as higher temperatures and prolonged droughts are fuelling fire conditions in these vulnerable areas.
A study, published in Nature Climate Change – and led by scientists from the UK Met Office and Vrije Universiteit Brussel – used advanced climate and wildfire models to compare scenarios with and without the effects of climate change.
The results show that climate change is directly contributing to more frequent and intense wildfires in many regions.
“For the first time, we’ve been able to quantify the amount of burnt area attributable specifically to climate change,” explained Seppe Lampe, climate scientist at VUB and one of the study’s lead authors.
They added: “We found that despite human activities—like land management—working to reduce fire areas, the impact of climate change on wildfires continues to grow.”
While climate change is driving an increase in fires globally, the study highlights significant regional variations.
In Africa, which accounts for up to 70% of the global burnt area, wildfires are actually declining in some areas, especially in the savannas.
This reduction is largely due to increased human activities, such as agricultural expansion and landscape management, which limit fire spread.
Dr. Chantelle Burton, wildfire expert at the Met Office and co-author of the study, said: “In places like the African savannas, landscape fragmentation and other human interventions are reducing the area burned.
“In these regions, the direct impact of human actions currently outweighs the risks posed by climate change.”
However, the situation is different in regions with extensive forest cover, such as Siberia and parts of North America.
Here, wildfires are on the rise, driven by longer dry spells and hotter temperatures attributed to climate change.
“In forested regions like Western Siberia, we’re seeing an alarming increase in the frequency and severity of fires,” said Burton.
“Our models indicate that climate change is fueling these trends.”