The Met Office’s latest long range forecast says some sleet and snow is “likely at times” but “more settled conditions are possible” this Christmas.
Drawing back the curtains to see snow on Christmas Day morning would add a bit of extra magic to the occasion, but the jury is still out as to whether this December 25 will be a white one.
In its long-range forecast spanning Christmas Eve to January 7, the Met Office says it is likely that most areas will see mainly unsettled conditions, with wind, rain, and showers affecting most.
It adds: “Some sleet and snow is also likely at times, especially on high ground in the north. However, there are also some signs that more settled conditions are possible at times, these perhaps most likely across the south late in December or into early January.”
The national forecaster says temperatures are likely to be about average, with a risk of fog and frost during any more settled interludes.
According to the Met Office, Britons are more likely to see snow in January and February than in December.
For the Met Office, a white Christmas is when just one snowflake falls anywhere in the UK during the 24 hours of December 25.
In the old days, the forecaster used only the Met Office’s building in London to define whether it was a white Christmas or not. But, now, other places are included, such as Edinburgh Castle, Coronation Street in Manchester, Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium and Buckingham Palace.
Data from Met Office weather stations are also used, with more accurate forecasts of likely snow on Christmas Day made up to five days before December 25.
In 2023, 11% of stations recorded snowfall, though none was reported to have settled. The last widespread white Christmas is from 2010, when, according to the Met Office, snow was on the ground at 83% of stations.
Netweather’s long-range winter forecast says colder weather may result from blocking high pressure in the mid-Atlantic or over Scandinavia, which “bodes well” for those hoping for a white Christmas.
But this far out, these are “just hints,” and according to Netweather, the overall picture is expected to be on the mild side.
Meanwhile, the Met Office’s latest forecast says this week’s weather will be calmer and colder, with mist and fog likely to be the biggest issue.
Met Office Meteorologist Alex Deakin said that after last week’s violent winds and torrential rain, this week will bring a “different flavour.”
He added that high pressure has now built in behind Storm Darragh, with temperatures below average in Scotland and Northern Ireland of 5-6C and a degree or so higher but still feeling pretty colder. It’s still grey, gloomy, and showery with chilly winds.
Fog may form in central and southern Scotland and across Northern Ireland due to overnight clear skies, with the mercury plunging to -3C or -4C.
According to the Met Office, rural parts of Scotland may even see negative double figures overnight. Clouds and breezes will help keep temperatures up in the rest of Britain. But Tuesday will continue to feel chilly, though there won’t be as many showers.
Mr Deakin said if fog persists in Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland, temperatures won’t rise much above freezing. During spells of sunshine, temperatures could reach 3-5C in northern Britain, with 6C or 7C further south.
