It’s been a lethargic start to the Olympics for Sweden’s men’s hockey club.
As a recap: The Swedes let the Italians, who began the tournament with 100/1 gold medal odds, not only strike first, but settled for a 5-2 victory after spending 60 minutes of fruitless target practice. Finland then hit them with a tempo jump as they fell to their rivaling nation, 4-1, on Friday.
Now comes the last chance to steady the ship for Sweden, which began the tournament with the third-shortest odds at +650.
Slovakia delivered the first major upset of the Games with a 4-1 victory over Finland. With only seven NHL players rostered, the Slovaks came to Milan as middling underdogs and haven’t shared the same breath as the Americans, Canadians, and Swedes in any dialogue amongst pundits.
One thing they do have going for them is Juraj Slafkovsky leading the tournament with four points as of this writing. The 2022 first-overall selection to the Montreal Canadiens buried a pair of goals against the Finns and has turned heads with his bulldozing strength and blistering shot.
Slafkovsky played in the 2022 Beijing Olympics four months before he was drafted. He led Slovakia to its first-ever bronze medal, earning tournament MVP honors with seven goals, and that experience over his contemporaries is paying dividends.
But there’s not much depth to this Slovakian roster to support Slafkovsky’s heroics. Maybe we still aren’t giving enough credit to the Italians, or maybe their opponents just aren’t stepping on their throats as early as they should. Either way, Slovakia loses stock after it took all 60 minutes to secure a 3-2 victory over the tournament’s most underqualified roster.
The Swedes have multiple Slafkovskys, though; it’s just that none of them are producing. Between Elias Pettersson, Lucas Raymond, Mika Zibanejad, William Nylander, and Jesper Bratt, you wouldn’t know these are franchise players in the world’s most premier hockey league based on these Games; they’ve been invisible.
Sweden is getting outmuscled in all three zones, and the lack of physicality in their game is conspicuous.
For what it’s worth, Sweden remains disciplined. They haven’t let their frustrations lead to penalties, and on the four they have taken, they’ve killed at a perfect rate. One thing that stands out to me about Slovakia is their lack of a true power play quarterback, as all the reliance is on Slafkovsky.
Filip Gustavsson has yet to find a rhythm in the net for the Swedes, allowing the first strike in both tilts.
Betting on the NHL?
On the other end, Samuel Hlavaj and Stanislav Skorvanek have kept the Slovaks well fortified in their respective starts.
Everything says that Sweden’s flat play should be untrustworthy against a team that’s exceeding their projections. I’m still going to invest in their elite credibility to break the pattern in the most important period of their tournament.
Back the Swedes to get out of the first period with a lead.
THE PLAY: Sweden -0.5 (1P spread -115, DraftKings)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
