Try this on for size: Between Finland and Sweden, the two combined for 100 shots in their opening games of the 2026 Winter Olympics preliminary round.
One lost, 4-1, and the other failed to cover its 5.5-goal spread against a roster with no NHL experience.
It’s safe to say that it wasn’t the first impressions anyone expected from the Finns or the Swedes, the two dark-horse candidates of the tournament.
Conversion failure and opposing goaltending were the themes for both clubs in their respective games. Both teams missed a handful of prime opportunities to bury the puck and allowed the goalie to gain confidence on plenty of unscreened, readable shots and passes.
Someone will have to conjure success on their scoring chances when they face off against one another on Friday at 6:10 a.m. ET.
These teams are usually evenly matched enough to call it a coin toss.
Finland defeated Sweden 4-3 in overtime at the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament last year, then Sweden avenged itself with a 2-1 victory at the IIHF World Championship.
Sweden is favored with a tag at -198 with the goal total set at 5.5 via DraftKings.
As of this writing, 74 percent of moneyline bets are backing the Swedes, while 64 percent of total bets are on the Over at DraftKings.
Now, a lot of the sloppiness from these teams can be attributed to early-stage cohesion as many of these players transition from the middle of their NHL seasons into a different team and environment.
The Finns had question marks on defense coming into the Olympics, anyway.
Beyond Miro Heiskanen, there’s a lack of reliable depth that could only expose this group even more against a contender like Sweden.
Sweden’s blue line offers plenty of strong positional play with proven NHL talent. They committed several brief lapses that the Italians jumped on, which can be forgiven.
If you watched both Finland-Slovakia and Sweden-Italy, the pace of play was night and day. Warming up against Italy did Sweden no favors, and improving to flawless play within less than 48 hours seems unlikely with threats like Mikko Rantanen and Sebastian Aho on tap.
Betting on the NHL?
It’s goaltending, however, where I’m having trouble instilling faith. Finland’s Juuse Saros struggled with rebound control and gave up three goals on 24 shots.
With Sweden’s Filip Gustavsson, it never felt like he entirely settled in. He handed Italy the lead early by turning the puck over to a lone attacker, allowing a squeaker. Gustavsson was never tested thereafter.
These rivaling nations may play close, but five total goals is too low a ceiling for a) the amount of firepower on the ice and b) team chemistry that’s in progress.
THE PLAY: Over 5.5 (+102, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.