You know the horse drawing meme where one side is a beautifully detailed illustration of the hind legs and the other is a scanty kindergarten doodle? That was the first thing I thought of at first glance of Germany’s Olympic roster.
The Germans wield one of the best offensive skills on the planet in Leon Draisaitl, who is accompanied by a respectable supporting cast of Tim Stutzle, Philipp Grubauer, J.J. Peterka and Moritz Seider. Beyond that, there’s a steep drop off from NHL talent, and that has come out in the wash through Germany’s first two games.
It’s no disrespect to the Germans, but getting outshot 37-23 by the Danish and then handing the Latvians their first Olympic victory in 12 years reveals instability.
The Achilles was their penalty kill, which surrendered two power-play goals to Latvia in the 4-3 loss. Germany’s penalty killing unit has fallen to a tournament-worst rank of 50 percent efficiency.
That’s a problem against the United States on Sunday, whose Avengers-like assembly of superstars has been overwhelming with the man advantage thus far.
United States GM Bill Guerin designed this team to emphasize speed and skill, while using its strength down the middle to dominate puck possession. The blue line features one of the best collections of offensive defensemen in history, so Grubauer will have his hands full with scoring chances on any disadvantage.
Betting on the NHL?
I don’t like placing too much stock in the transitive property, but in a group play format, it’s not worth noting: The Latvians clogged the neutral zone against Germany, limited clean entries into their zone, and struck efficiently on scoring chances. The Americans wore Latvia down with their up-tempo transition game and physicality. Even two overturned goals in the first period couldn’t mask the significant gap.
After a frustrating start against Denmark, when they allowed a pair of soft goals, the Americans can’t afford to let an inferior opponent hang around again.
Lest we forget, goal differential carries tiebreaker implications, so look for a reenactment of the Battle of the Bulge on Sunday.
THE PLAY: USA -2.5 (-150, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
