The Marlins begin a three-game set with the Red Sox on Monday in Miami.
Boston brings out Ranger Suarez against Sandy Alcantara as both teams are in the thick of the playoff race.
The Marlins have work to do but sit within four games of the Padres for the final National League wild-card spot, with the Diamondbacks between them and the Cardinals, who are not far behind.
The Red Sox have opened as small favorites (54 percent, Polymarket) in the series opener despite theoretically having the weaker side of the pitching matchup.
Alcantara’s career has been interesting. He won the 2022 NL Cy Young Award unanimously, but injuries have really slowed him since.
He’s rekindled some of his past greatness this season, sporting a 13-8 record and 3.46 ERA.
Suarez, 5-3 with a 3.41 ERA, has been very solid this season as well but does not boast the same strikeout potential that makes Alcantara one of the most tantalizing talents in all of baseball.
This matchup could get shaky for Alcantara because the Red Sox do not strike out very often, and he relies heavily on the strikeout. For the month of August, the Red Sox entered Sunday 25th in strikeouts (145) and third in walks (84).
However, Alcantara is lights out at home, with a 2.69 ERA compared to an ERA in the mid-fours away from South Florida.
We all know that Boston has been otherworldly for nearly two months, with a 39-13 mark since June 25, but they’ve also been really strong on the road.
Boston is 37-27 on the road, among the best figures in the league, while being slightly below average at home.
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Miami is a disaster on the road (26-39) but excellent at home (40-25).
I expect both teams to come out and put up solid performances Monday night, and I’ll take the under that has opened up at 7.5 on FanDuel.
The Under is 37-28 in Marlins home games, and 32-31-1 in Red Sox road games.
THE PLAY: Under 7.5 total runs (-112, FanDuel)
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