In the aftermath of the collapse of the French government – with newly-appointed PM and former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier the latest casualty of febrile French politics – President Emmanuel Macron told political leaders this week that while he will appoint a new Prime Minister imminently, their survival will not depend on Marine Le Pen’s nationalist National Rally (FN).
Centrist François Bayrou is the hot favourite to succeed Barnier amid hopes FN will not be able to thwart him as they did Barnier. To complicate matters further still, the French Left is already gunning for Bayrou and pressuring for a new PM from their side of the aisle.
In all this Macron – whose machinations helped lay the groundwork for Barnier’s dismissal in many ways – is hoping to checkmate Le Pen, who is currently facing potential charges over embezzling EU funds, something her supporters say is politically motivated.
Should Le Pen be found guilty, at the very least she could be barred from public office. That said, the perception of political gameplaying means such a ban seems unlikely.
Assuming Le Pen avoids this fate she remains odds-on favourite to succeed Macron and achieve her long-coveted goal of becoming the French President.
Her recent power play over Barnier – having initially supported the outgoing PM, she made clear her opposition to his Macronist plans over the country’s budget – has established the FN leader as a crusader of the French working class.
This is likely to cement her authority in time for the next presidential vote.
Macron then is taking no chances, deciding to host all political sides in parliament except for FN and the Leftist La France Insoumise. The upshot of this meeting was the new PM shouldn’t rely on Le Pen as Barnier had to.
That said, Le Pen’s authority is likely to be strengthened by the perception her power is growing, while Macron – increasingly seen as out of touch by the French people – is increasingly seen as running scared of the FN leader.
The EU would be petrified at the prospect of a Le Pen presidency. Although Le Pen has softened her tone on Brussels in recent years, she remains avowedly Eurosceptic and hostile to mass immigration.
Having a Viktor Orban-like figure lead one of the two major economies of the EU project could unwind everything the eurocrats have worked towards.
Sir Keir Starmer may find the EU he is hoping to ingratiate Britain with is a far cry from the more unified and confident body which Britain voted to leave in 2016.
For now, Macron lives to fight another day. But in attempting to sideline Le Pen, the French President is in many ways strengthening her authority and augmenting her credibility ahead of the next presidential election.
With Barnier gone, Macron and his EU-backed deficit-busting budget are in tatters. This is now Le Pen’s game to lose and she is clearly readying herself for the final push.
