Another year, another kick at the can for Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars.
No. 2 Houston will run it back again after falling in the national championship to Florida last year, starting with a first-round matchup against No. 15 Idaho as 23.5-point favorites.
The Cougars capped off a 28-6 campaign, but finished in Arizona’s shadow in both the Big 12 standings and title game, falling to the Wildcats last week, 79-74.
Laying 23.5 is a big swallow; Action Network’s public betting reports reflect only 13 percent of spread bettors are taking the leap.
Sampson dominates early tournament games like this though: he’s 13-0 straight-up as NCAA Tournament favorite of eight-plus points and is reliable against the spread (ATS) at 11-7 in the first and second rounds, respectively.
Idaho vs. Houston odds, prediction
The Vandals look dangerous at first glance.
They toss up lots of 3 and score 78.7 points per game. They’re too reliant on 3-point shooting, though, hitting 981 attempts this season.
Idaho also doesn’t generate easy points; they only hit 15.6 free throws per game and are poor at offensive rebounding, grabbing 6.7 per game.
Now, let’s layer that against a Cougars defense that finished top five in both defensive efficiency and turnovers forced.
They’re one of the college game’s best possession teams, only turning the ball over 8.5 times per game while crawling up and down the hardwood.
The Cougars ranked 352nd in tempo and even though that can scare off bettors laying a spread like this one, slow pace doesn’t hurt blowouts when one team can’t score consistently
Idaho doesn’t only struggle to create an efficient half-court offense; they also don’t run, get to the line or crash the glass.
That’s in addition to the fact that Houston has yielded only 62.9 points per game, the second-fewest in the nation.
The conference mismatch here is also gargantuan. Big Sky Conference representatives have gone 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games.
Betting on College Basketball?
Yes, Idaho has won five straight, but teams there are used to faster paces and more offensive liberty, whereas Houston plays a tough half-court grind and physical defense.
With all the recent deep runs that the Cougars have made, the Vandals haven’t cracked the tournament since 1990 and are just five years removed from a 1-21 record.
This is a massacre waiting to happen.
THE PLAY: Houston -23.5 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
