The last spot in the Final Four will come down to a heavyweight battle between a pair of college basketball powerhouses.
No. 1 Duke and No. 2 UConn are set to meet in the East region final with a trip to Indianapolis on the line.
In a gutsy 80-75 victory, Jon Scheyer’s team held off St. John’s, with Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans’ pick-and-roll working cohesively in the final moments to secure the win.
Dan Hurley and the Huskies jumped out to an early 25-6 lead over Michigan State, but they needed a crucial, late 3-pointer from Alex Karaban to ultimately seal the victory in their Sweet 16 matchup.
Tipoff for this ACC vs. Big East contest gets underway at 5:05 p.m. ET on CBS.
Duke is a 5.5-point favorite over UConn with the Over/Under set at 133.5 total points on bet365 Sportsbook.
Duke vs. UConn prediction, best bet
Duke has now won fourteen consecutive games, a remarkable feat considering the difficulty of their path to this point— a difficulty some suggest was intentional.
Against Siena, the team’s defense, which KenPom ranks as the second-best nationally, initially struggled but then locked down. This strong defensive effort limited the 16-seed to just 22 points in the second half, a pattern of stinginess that carried over into their round-of-32 blowout win over TCU.
Once again, in the Sweet 16, the Blue Devils seemingly absorbed Rick Pitino and the Johnnies’ best punch to come out with a hard-fought five-point victory.
These moments of resiliency explain why they are +265 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win it all entering Sunday’s contest.
The Huskies carry 14/1 odds to win their third title in four seasons.
Alex Karaban, Tarris Reed Jr., and Solo Ball combined for 49 of UConn’s 67 points in their win over Michigan State. This team has a scrappy defensive mentality, a hallmark of Hurley teams, evident in the Huskies’ recent outings.
According to Torvik rankings, they rank 13th in total defensive efficiency and excel at defending 2-point shots, holding opponents to just 45.7 percent shooting inside the arc, a near top-10 capacity.
This will be key, as despite Zuby Ejiofor’s presence in the middle, Duke dominated the Red Storm, scoring 40 points in the paint.
There will be a ton of pressure on Reed Jr. and Karaban to stay out of foul trouble chasing around Boozer, along with fellow frontcourt players Maliq Brown and Patrick Ngongba.
The potential guard-wing matchups of Braylon Mullins, Silas Demary Jr. and Malachi Smith opposite Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr will also be critical.
Acting as a decoy starter for Smith, Demary Jr. has returned from injury, but, in two tournament games, has only managed to shoot 1-of-5 so far. Foster’s eleven points off the bench for Duke, along with Evans clutch shot-making down the stretch, were instrumental.
Betting on College Basketball?
UConn’s experience should keep the game competitive early, but the Huskies are prone to fading, a weakness seen when they quickly surrendered a 19-point lead against Michigan State.
Duke’s nation-leading average second-half margin of +9.3 makes me confident in backing them at -5.5 on the spread.
They will also have the best player on the floor in Boozer, who has recorded a double-double in all three March Madness games.
The Plays: Duke -5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook) | Duke -2.5 2nd Half spread (-106, FanDuel)
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