It feels shameful that the nation’s top two teams will play each other in the Final Four, but after all, it is March Madness, and the winner of this game isn’t guaranteed anything.
Michigan and Arizona have been jockeying all week on Kalshi as favorites to win the title, with the Wolverines indicating a 35 percent chance to Arizona’s 33 percent at the time of this writing.
Behind Duke, Arizona and Michigan were ESPN’s most popular champion picks in bracket pools, garnering 20.9 percent and 14.2 percent of brackets, respectively.
You’d be hard-pressed to find better examples of a Final Four matchup that features as much NBA pedigree and depth. Both teams have pulverized their way through the first four rounds with eight double-digit wins between them. In fact, in their combined five losses throughout the season, the deficit was by a collective 25 points.
That explains the hairline spread of 1.5 points leaning Michigan’s way, though this matchup has all the ingredients of a pick’em.
Arizona vs. Michigan prediction, best bet
In the Elite Eight, Arizona erased a seven-point halftime deficit by bursting out with a 16-3 second-half run. The Wildcats imposed their will in the paint and stifled Purdue’s top players by manning the boards and the line.
Youth basketball coaches around America could use Michigan’s Tennessee spanking as a universal teaching tool. The Wolverines scored 21 unanswered points in the first half by swamping the Vols with their size, speed, balance, and unselfish basketball.
Michigan and Arizona mirror one another in the sense that they both have the size and physicality to command the paint and rebound aggressively. Finding the edge is elusive, but it’s there.
Let’s quickly address the first of two caveats, which is Michigan’s discipline. Arizona buckets nearly 20 points per game at the line. Michigan commits only 15 fouls per game and grants only 16 free-throw attempts.
The other is paint reliance. The Wildcats’ 90 paint points against Arkansas in the Sweet 16 were the tournament’s best interior display in 20 years, per ESPN. They sank 40 from inside against Purdue.
Impressive, but there’s no variance.
Arizona takes nearly 75 percent of its shots inside the arc, and there is no perimeter volume to compensate. The Wildcats rank No. 363 out of 365 teams in 3-point attempt rate and have hit double-digit 3s only four times this season.
Betting on College Basketball?
Michigan is the third-best 2-point defense in the country, and yes, while Arizona is No. 2, the Wolverines can actually exploit this with reliable 3-point shooting. The Wolverines are KenPom’s 19th overall in 3-point rate, a status they’ve achieved by hitting 40 percent of their 3s since March 1.
Enter Michigan maestro Yaxel Lendeborg, whose 27-point flurry against Tennessee came with full offensive freedom. The favorite to win the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player Award is shooting 50 percent from 3-point range and 59.2 percent from the field throughout March Madness. That freedom only expands here because help defense can’t collapse as aggressively without conceding 3s.
Arizona rarely forces teams into high-volume perimeter play because prior opponents couldn’t generate it.
Michigan can — and will.
THE PLAY: Michigan moneyline (-113, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.