First-round action of March Madness 2026 continues as Big East champion No. 5 St. John’s takes on No. 12 Northern Iowa out of the Missouri Valley Conference.
Rick Pitino and the Red Storm will take the court opposite the Panthers at 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.
The Red Storm are 9.5-point favorites on the spread, per bet365 Sportsbook.
The Johnnies and UNI are two defensive-minded ball clubs, and the Over/Under is 131.5 points.
St. John’s vs. Northern Iowa prediction, best bet
This game is expected to be a grind-it-out type of affair, with both teams boasting top-25 defensive efficiency.
Trey Campbell is the Panthers’ go-to guy when they need a basket. He averages a team-best 13.7 points per game and netted 23 points in the MVC Final.
The Panthers are ranked 24th in KenPom’s latest defensive ratings and limit opponents to just 61.3 points per game, the best mark in Division I.
They also defend the 3-point line extremely well, limiting the opposition to 28.5%.
UNI is defensively sound, but it holds a 0-2 record against Quad 2 teams this season, having lost to Saint Mary’s and Belmont.
The committee might’ve misplaced the Johnnies, and Pitino’s 24-10 mark in the round of 64 should improve.
The Red Storm’s defense ranks 12th per KenPom and they were able to hold UConn to only 52 points in their Big East Final win.
Offensively, Zuby Ejiofor will likely draw double teams, but his improved playmaking skills could be a key factor. The Big East Player of the Year is coming off a signature tournament run, notching 20 points or more in each game.
If the Panthers choose to build a wall around Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins then Oziyah Sellers must be ready to capitalize on catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Betting on College Basketball?
Steering clear of a scary letdown, I’m backing the Johnnies to handle business and create ample scoring opportunities from their stifling press defense.
Northern Iowa is yet to experience the Red Storm’s patented full-court coverage, as Ian Jackson, Joson Sanon and Dillon Mitchell can speed up their guards into turnovers.
The Johnnies’ moneyline has hit on 19 of their last 20; expect another win in San Diego.
The Play: St. John’s moneyline + Under 131.5 (+120, BetMGM)
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