Nigel Farage may be right: Sir Keir Starmer or whoever has the misfortune to replace him could well bring forward the next election by two years. On face value, this would be madness. Labour won last July’s election with a stonking great majority and – especially with its opinion poll crash since – should want to cling on to power until the very last minute, meaning 2029. But, as Angela Rayner’s departure and the looming deputy leadership contest alludes to, this Labour government could well tear itself to shreds by then.
This threat could be augmented by votes peeling off to Jeremy Corbyn’s new party or the Greens. Ironically Labour’s smartarse idea to hand votes to 16-year-olds could backfire as the kids swing to the Hard Left. As Reform UK tops yet more polls in September, Farage may be correct that an early election is coming, assuming Labour thinks things will only get worse, and an earlier election will guarantee less blood loss.
That makes Reform’s policy and professionalisation drive even more pressing. But the world Farage could be walking into could be a very different one to today’s.
2027, for starters, is earmarked as the date Communist China could have a crack at democratic Taiwan. That year will mark the date of the next Chinese Communist Party congress and CCP boss Xi Jinping needs to have something to say about Taiwan.
Even if Britain stayed in splendid isolation – and, given the Special Relationship, I doubt it could – the economic blowback would be both unavoidable and horrific. Think Covid on steroids.
Either in 2027 or 2029, PM Farage could find himself a wartime PM, something which could throw much of Reform’s current objectives on to the backburner. A wartime PM tends to enjoy early popular support (which can fast diminish). PM Starmer – if Labour is still in power when China makes a move – could enjoy a similar boost.
The difference is that in 2027 Donald Trump will still be US President. Does that make a difference to what a Reform government could do. Who knows? But it might.
Frankly, Farage and Trump leading their respective countries simultaneously might set UK-US relations on a more positive footing. And remember, Trump is out by early 2029! So that boost only comes with an earlier election.
Whatever year Reform gets into government, it is likely to face an obstructionist ‘blob’ and House of Lords, which makes having more Reform peers and being well prepared for government super critical. More time will help to get its ducks in a row, but Farage knows this, hence his talk of preparing now.
Still, it is in foreign policy where Farage could face his biggest test, and one which has the potential to blow everything else out of the water.