We’ve got a high-stakes showdown in the ACC on Saturday afternoon.
No. 23 Louisville (1-1) will host No. 16 SMU (2-0) as both teams will look for their first signature win of the campaign.
It’s a game that has the potential to go a long way in shaping the race for the ACC, as well as the College Football Playoff.
The oddsmakers are having a devil of a time splitting these two teams, as the spread is holding at Louisville -1.5.
Flip a coin.
Louisville vs. SMU prediction, odds
SMU is the undefeated team in this matchup, but Louisville had the most impressive performance to start the season in a 41-38 defeat to Ole Miss in Nashville.
The Cardinals were left rueing some undisciplined play in that contest, but other than that, it was a rousing performance against a team that has national championship aspirations this season.
The offense, led by former Ohio State deputy QB Lincoln Kienholz, was deadly, averaging 6.9 yards per play and doing damage in the air and on the ground.
A loss is a loss, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a Louisville fan who left that game feeling worse than they did going into it.
SMU’s fanbase should also be buoyant after the Mustangs dispatched Florida State, 27-24, on the road in Week 1. That result may not seem to hold much weight knowing what we know about the Seminoles, but the final score of that contest was pretty misleading.
SMU put up 585 yards of total offense and averaged 8.7 yards per play against the Seminoles. It should have been a rout, but a few too many mistakes kept the game in the balance.
Betting on College Football?
There is a lot to like about both of these teams in Week 3 and going forward, and finding an edge here requires some nitpicking, but the one glaring concern is Kevin Jennings’ habit of making one too many mistakes under center for SMU.
He can win a game on his own, but for the Mustangs to go anywhere this season, they need him to play a tidier brand of football. He hasn’t done that, which makes me skeptical that SMU can hang in what should be a raucous atmosphere in Derby City on Saturday.
The Play: Louisville moneyline (-120, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
