Leo Varadkar’s crushing defeat in Saturday’s double referendum has left the Taoiseach so “severely damaged” that his political career may not recover, a former Irish diplomat has warned.
And Ray Bassett said the results – which saw two-thirds of voters reject changes to Ireland’s constitution widening the definition of family – also represented a “disaster” for Sinn Fein.
Mr Bassett, Ireland’s former ambassador to Canada, Jamaica and the Bahamas, was speaking as Fine Gael leader Mr Varadkar tried to pick up the pieces after his proposals were defeated in every area of the country except Dun Laoghaire on Saturday.
Ireland’s leader attempted to put a brave face on the situation at the weekend, pledging to “accept the result fully”.
But Mr Bassett, who helped negotiate the landmark Good Friday Agreement in 1998, believes the setback might ultimately be too much to bear.
He told Express.co.uk: “There is severe embarrassment all around in Dublin after the Irish electorate soundly thrashed Leo Varadkar’s proposed two amendments to the Irish Constitution.
“The referendums involved changes to the definition of the family and the provision of care in the community. These proposals were supported by the main Opposition parties and all the main newspapers.”
Despite pollsters predicting a “positive outcome” for the Government, the subsequent result had demonstrated “a wide gulf between the State’s establishment and the electorate”, Mr Bassett pointed out.
He continued: “Privately Government people were describing the result as seismic. The only explanation offered by a shocked Government was that the electorate was confused, thus adding insult to injury.
“With a general election likely later this year, there will be many nervous Government backbenchers wondering whether it is worth running again.”
With specific reference to the 45-year-old himself, Mr Bassett suggested: “Varadkar himself may be contemplating a career change, with his prospects of being returned as Taoiseach fading.
“His personal standing has been severely damaged by the scale of the defeat.
“If his Fine Gael party performs badly in the forthcoming European and Local elections, it could well mean the end of Varadkar as its leader.”
The “emphatic” result was a clear indication that the administration which Mr Varadkar – a fierce critic of Brexit after Britain voted to quit the EU in 2016 – currently heads up as “living in a cocooned bubble and incompetent” as problems mount, Mr Bassett suggested.
By way of example, he accused the Varadkar-led administration of “having bungled housing matters, immigration and presided over a massive overrun in costs for the new Children’s hospital”.
Meanwhile the Government seemed to be “obsessed” with being “politically progressive” while failing in the basic fundamentals of good governance, argued Mr Bassett,
He said: “These defeats may signal that there is no appetite in Ireland for further ‘woke’ policies.”
Turning his attention to Sinn Fein, led by Mary Lou McDonald, Mr Bassett said the result was a “disaster” for Ireland’s main opposition party.
He explained: “In Cherry Orchard, a Sinn Fein heartland, the proposals were opposed by 94 percent of the voters. That party’s attempts to portray itself as moderate left of centre is alienating its core supporters while not bringing in new groups.
“The party has seen a significant fall in its support in the polls and will have to reassess its strategy. Questions will also have to be answered by the NGO sector, much of it funded by Government, as to why they were so supportive of such unpopular proposals.”
Above all, the results had proven there was potential for major changes in the political landscape given none of the main political parties “seem to be in tune with the electorate”, Mr Bassett concluded.
He said: “There is a volatility there and it is hard to predict how it would play out in a general election. The pollsters also have to explain how they got their projections so wrong.
“In the weeks leading up to the poll, I failed to meet a single person who was in favour of the proposals, yet the pollsters were predicting a Government victory.”
Speaking on Sunday, Mr Varadkar, who pushed the vote to enshrine gender equality in the constitution by removing “very old-fashioned language” and tried to recognise the realities of modern family life, said that voters had delivered “two wallops” to the government.
He added: “Clearly we got it wrong. While the old adage is that success has many fathers and failure is an orphan, I think when you lose by this kind of margin, there are a lot of people who got this wrong and I am certainly one of them.”
Mr Varadkar first became Taoiseach in 2017, stepping down in favour of Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin in 2020 in accordance with the terms of their coalition deal which also involves the Greens.
He returned to the top job in 2022.
