Nigel Farage’s Reform Party would take 67 seats from Labour if the general election were held today, a super-poll has suggested.
Britons heading to the ballot now would see Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour losing 200 seats – just five months after the general election in July.
The analysis, by the think tank More in Common, suggested Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Green Party on two.
The implied national vote share has Labour on 25%, the Conservatives on 26%, Reform on 21% t, the Lib Dems on 14%, the Greens on 8%, the SNP on 2% and other parties on 3%.
Seven cabinet ministers would lose their seats, six of them to Reform, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting losing his constituency to an independent candidate.
At the 2024 general election, the Labour Party won 411 seats in a landslide victory.
But since then, it has announced £40 billion in tax hikes, slashed the winter fuel payment, launched an inheritance tax raid on farmers, attempted to bring the UK closer to the EU and U-turned on promises to compensate WASPI women.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With potentially four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election. Instead it confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office.
“The first-past-the-post system is struggling to deal with that degree of fragmentation, which is why our model shows so many seats on a three-way knife-edge, and many being won on exceptionally small shares of the vote. There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer government disappointing, and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow.
“While the new government is still in its infancy, it is clear that decisions such as means-testing the winter fuel allowance and other budget measures have landed badly.”
The analysis is based on voting intention data collected between October 31 and December 16 from 11,024 adults in Great Britain.
