Despite allegedly aiming its political guns at Reform UK – viewing Nigel Farage’s party as the real opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s government – Labour does a poor job of directly challenging the insurgent party. Perhaps one Labour MP gets the risk to his party, however. Beckenham MP – Liam Conlon – recently issued a warning about the threat Labour faces from Reform in the capital after a Reform by-election win in Bromley last week, the first such council win in London.
Conlon said he feared Reform’s victory marked “the start of a new trend” in voting in the capital, while Labour must take the threat “seriously”. Although London is seen as traditional Labour territory, it offers rich pickings for Reform in the Brexit-voting outskirts, especially in boroughs like Havering.
While it is tempting to think Brexit was only voted for by old white folks, one-third of British Asians backed Leave. Many South Asian Brits (especially British Indians) – with conservative social values and often small businesses – have plumped for the Tories in recent years and could likely be persuaded by Reform.
This could open opportunities for Farage in West London, in particular. It is a universal misunderstanding that minorities love mass immigration. Often these communities are the ones facing the brunt of pressures on housing, schools and healthcare.
Moreover, despite the myth-making of the Islingtonian Left, minorities are not some monolithic bloc which blindly follows whichever candidate the Left puts up (just ask Kamala Harris!).
Conlon is at least astute enough to sense the Reform threat and not sweep this danger under the rug. The opinion polls are not lying. Farage’s party is on the march across the country, often in areas which traditionally voted Labour.
The Brexit-backing areas of Outer London will offer the richest pickings for Reform now. Just look at recent protests in Epping. Meanwhile a capital which twice elected Boris Johnson as Mayor has seen the Conservative vote die. Into this vacuum likely comes Reform.