Angela Rayner could lose her seat to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at the next general election, according to a bombshell poll out today.
The Deputy Prime Minister, who has held the Ashton-under-Lyne seat in the north-west of England since 2015, would be one of 238 Labour MPs to be booted out of Parliament, based on the data collected by Electoral Calculus on behalf of PLMR.
The astonishing poll, which is based on a sample size of more than 5,700 people, puts Reform on 24% of the vote, with Labour and Conservatives tied on 23%.
In terms of seats, Mr Farage’s insurgent force would win 175 seats, while the Tories would take 178 and Labour 174.
Ms Rayner isn’t the only Labour heavyweight who could lose their seat based on the Electoral Calculus poll.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting would lose Ilford North to the Tories, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper would be ousted from Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley and replaced with a Reform MP, too.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds would lose his seat Stalybridge and Hyde to Reform as well.
Kevin Craig, founder of PLMR, who commissioned the poll said: “Of course, there is a long, long way to go until the next election. History is littered with British Governments who were unpopular in the initial years and who then turned it around. Labour knows very well what it needs to deliver in order to win again.
“This poll shows multiple challenges for the two established parties as Reform UK continues to show momentum and is picking up support from disillusioned Labour and Conservative voters in economically struggling areas.
“A three-way split of the vote is practically unheard of in British politics and points to shifts in the political make-up of the United Kingdom. The Conservative Party will be particularly concerned that they are not able to move ahead of Labour in the polls as the official Opposition.
“If the Labour Government succeeds in its mission to grow the economy and inject optimism into the economic fortunes of households, I have no doubt they can turn things around – especially if the vote on the right remains so divided.”.
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our survey shows an unprecedented three-way tie at the top of British politics. If there were a general election tomorrow, any of the three parties could come out on top but would be unlikely to have an overall majority. This represents a massive change in public opinion since the general election just seven months ago.”