The saying goes that repeating the same thing and expecting a different result is a sign of madness. It is also said that those which the gods wish to destroy they first make mad. So, perhaps the gods have it in for our sceptred isle, for the 80 years since the end of the Second World War have, in many ways, been like Groundhog Day. A realisation of this is crucial to the success of any political party today that wants to have success and, more importantly, who wants Britain to be a success.
It seems to me that in each decade of the past 80 years there has been a recurrent theme of not rocking the boat, not levelling with the people of our country, not being prepared to take a risk. Instead, we favour asset stripping – selling the family silver to maintain an artificially high living standard. We manage decline rather than boost productivity. The greatest lost opportunity was that of the Atlee government in the 1940s.
Britain emerged from two world wars with a pyrrhic victory. In particular we had the vainglorious courage, or madness, to have risked all in fighting on alone for over a year in 1940/41 and straining in blood and treasure to prop up Russian resistance and pay our way in the world.
Britain fought for longer than any other country including Germany and emerged with little. We had the enormous and costly commitments of empire and the sterling area.
Lord Keynes, the famous economist, failed to protect Pax Britannica at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944, the British world order was finished and the new ear of Pax Americana usurped it and ensured we would settle our debts to them, having bled us dry through loans with which to fight the war.
Nonetheless, in 1945 Britain had an opportunity to restructure, revitalise our industry and secure a stranglehold on European markets.
Instead, Atlee’s government decided to pour borrowed money into a welfare state which it had to pull back from even by 1950, as the bottomless pit of the welfare state became apparent.
I have some sympathy with the predicament of these politicians failing to adjust to the reality of the loss of greatness and their lack of a radical economic agenda.
However, the post-war settlement did not stop Germany, who emerged from the war with 90% of its industrial machinery less than five years old and intact, despite allied bombing.
It had no reparations to pay, written-off debt and the boon of being chosen by the US as its European economic flagship state with the gift of the Marshall Plan money for reconstruction.
Coupled with wealth salted away in the Nazi period, including from slave labour, in Swiss accounts and elsewhere, Germany set out to boost its industry and within a decade replaced Britain in European markets behind a protectionist customs union, whilst Britain paid Germany for the burden of the British Army of the Rhine and the tactical air force we provided to defend Europe from the Russians.
For two decades our defence spending was around 8% to 10% of GDP. At least Bevan insisted we develop our own atom bomb with “a bloody Union Jack on the top”.
The Conservatives in the 1950s and into the 1960s continued much the same, instead of dumping the Commonwealth and simply making common cause with the Dominions, Conservative governments upheld a declinist agenda rejecting the more radical reset of our economic fortunes proposed by Chancellor Butler and years later by Peter Thornycroft.
We also gave away a properly independent nuclear deterrent becoming borrowers of American technology. Labour’s Harold Wilson recognised the problem, so much so his health suffered, but did not bite the bullet of a true economic growth policy, preferring instead the wishful thinking of “the white heat of technology”.
Nor did Tory Edward Heath who preferred instead the false life boat of the Common Market, wilfully ignoring the federalist objective of ever closer union.
Labour and Conservative governments recognised also the dangers of mass migration, drafted laws to curb it, but did not proceed with the legislation.
Each administration had a chance to negotiate a European arrangement favourable to Britain but failed, either by failing to neutralise the federalist agenda in the early years or later failing to hardball a deal accommodating the UK.
The only partial retreat from the policy of relative decline was under Margaret Thatcher. With few exceptions, PMs and much of the administrations have been economically illiterate and without business experience.
Many have thought these matters irrelevant compared to the foreign policy of the “great game” and welfare to buy votes. Instead they viewed private business as a mere tax “milch cow” to enable them to pursue their hobby horses. The Suez crisis of Eden, the constitutional meddling and Iraq debacle of Blair are in this category. So is Starmer’s Chagos islands.
It seems that nothing has changed to this day except there was a mini-revolution in the Brexit vote that afforded the UK new opportunities which have not been fully grasped. Revolutions are not won by leaving the establishment in charge, Brexit has been frustrated at every turn but is slowly making a difference.
Having said this, the establishment prejudice against PM Truss’s mini-budget demonstrates that the same forces are at work as in every decade of the last 80 years.
Badly prepared and executed it may have been, but the central policy on tax was absolutely a recipe for real economic growth, in the spirit of Butler and Thornycroft.
The simple fact is that Britain will never breakout of its “Groundhog Day” of managed decline and instead enjoy wealth and prosperity until we do something different to stimulate productivity and economic growth.
This is the one thing upon which everything else depends. It should be the obsession of PMs as well as chancellors and every minister. It should be pursued relentlessly with extreme prejudice to the exclusion of all else. All else is subject to it.
It can only be delivered by private sector innovation, effort and investment. To nurture this we must be free and flexible with low taxes, small state spending, light regulation and a competitive environment. The alternative is Groundhog Day for ever.
John Longworth is a former MEP and chairs the Independent Business Network