Stop what you are doing. The Tories — the TORIES — have topped a poll. There’s nothing wrong with your eyes, your comprehensive skills are functioning. The Tories. Not Reform UK. The Tories. Under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, the Conservative Party has topped a More in Common voting intention poll, beating the Labour Party and Reform UK by a huge, inspirational, conversation-starting percentage point.
The oldest active political party in Britain scored 25%, with Labour and Reform on 24%. Dust off your Barbour, put on your red trousers and meet me down the pub. That’s IF you can bear to tear your hungry eyes away from righteous op-eds and social media posts. If you can do that — and you can fight your way through the celebrating masses, drunk on victory, giddy at the awesome hand of the divine finally giving them a lift — then meet me at the pub.
Or don’t. Because if you’re a Tory and you’re celebrating this win in any fashion, you need to give your head a wobble. You should ask yourself: Is it not a bit depressing to celebrate a Tory poll victory after so many Reform wins in the same arena?
It’s a bit like when we were in lockdown and some of us felt blessed to be able to drink a beer from a plastic cup in the street. It was a small victory, but acknowledging it as such showed just how dismal the broader picture was.
Likewise with this poll. If you care about the Conservative Party doing well, this isn’t great news. It’s a dim light struggling, and failing, to break through a thick smog of their own making.
I’m not party political myself, but I am a conservative, so I have a very small stake in this. And I don’t think that the Tories winning anything right now is good for conservatives.
That’s because the party comprehensively let down its voters while in office. Getting kicked out of power is a hell of a lesson, but it’s won’t be enough to learn from if the Tories secure a winning streak of any regard less than a year after the General Election.
The best thing for proper conservatives right now is for the Tories to be comprehensively hammered, almost to the point of destruction, so they have the chance to be reborn as a serious voice for those currently desserting, or ignoring, the party.
You might think that’s a bit harsh, that the Tories have learnt their lesson. Is that likely? Boris Johnson won a huge majority on the back of the Red Wall, but didn’t learn the lesson of how important that support was.
He said thank you, then did very little for those communities aside from Brexit, which should have been nailed on anyway the moment Leave won.
When vying for the leadership of the Tory party, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak were reduced to trying to out-Thatcher Margaret Thatcher. How short are their memories? Or were they stupid enough to think that would ensure the erstwhile Red Wall stayed blue?
There’s a misunderstanding of the country at large on a fundamental level that surfaces time and again in both the Tory and Labour parties.
Tragically, Labour don’t have much incentive to learn lessons right now. They’ve got years of power to enjoy. But the Tories could.
There’s a very small chance, that appears even smaller to minds made cynical by the Tories’ time in power, that if the party is left battered and bruised it will one day emerge stronger.
Like I say, a small chance. What’s a far more remote possibility is that the Tories are induced to change for the better by people telling them they’ll vote Conservative anyway.
There is another way of looking at this though. It could be that the Conservative Party, knowing how unappealing it looked after 2024’s catastrophic defeat, is sitting back and letting Labour and Reform have at it. Inevitably their opponents trip and the public is left desperate for something more competent and mainstream. Enter the Tories.
If this is the plan, then the Tories don’t deserve your vote. It would be the plan of a party prepared to coast. Again. It would not be the plan of a party perpared to fight for your values.
Sebastian Murphy is Comment Editor at the Express and author of Easy Kills: The inside story of Stephen Port