The Conservative Party is now on political death row following an underwhelming party conference. It can be little comfort to under-fire leader Kemi Badenoch that she does better than all her leadership challengers in a theoretical match-up with Nigel Farage. Yet, according to Merlin Strategy, despite this Badenoch would also fall flat against the Reform UK leader. Worse still, according to YouGov about two-thirds of Tory members support a pact with Reform, with party members split down the middle over an all-out merger.
Frankly, if the Conservatives really did face electoral wipeout at the next election, it is likely what’s left of Tory MPs simply split between Reform and the Lib Dems. Meanwhile, that same YouGov poll found a narrow majority of Tory party members want Badenoch gone before the next election. Again, Team Badenoch can draw some comfort from the fact she does better than other would-be Tory leaders against Farage.
But this is cold comfort when she has still lost the confidence of her party and would still seemingly lose to Reform. Farage has now captured the Brexit vote of old Tories and patriotic Labourites which catapulted Boris Johnson to victory in 2019.
It is a measure of Reform’s success that they were the top subject of the Lib Dem, Labour and Tory conferences. Just look at the latest opinion polls: Freshwater Strategy (Reform +15), Opinium (Reform +13), JL Partners (Reform +10), and Find Out Now (Reform +16).
Seat projections – at the very least – have Reform as the largest party. Others have Reform on an outright majority.
The Tories, by contrast, are now condemned to fourth place. All the Conservatives can do is ape Reform’s ideas even though they had over 14 years to fix Britain.
Badenoch faces an impossible task thanks to her predecessors’ failures. She may do better than her rivals in a face-off against Farage.
That could offer protection against leadership challenges, especially after what are expected to be disastrous local elections next May. But then what?
The Tories need to face facts: the problem is the party, not the leader. They screwed up and now they must pay the price. The Conservatives are on political death row.
