Has Tory leader Kemi Badenoch done enough to counter the threat from Nigel Farage? The consensus is her conference speech and big policy announcements gave the under-fire Conservative chief some much-needed breathing room. The opinion polls also suggest a ‘Badenoch bump’. Opinium, for example, has cut Reform’s poll lead from 13 to 10 points. In its latest poll, the Tories are up two, Reform UK is down two, and Labour is also up by one. Still, a lead of 10 is a lead of 10 for Nigel Farage! And Badenoch’s cause is not helped when a majority of Tory members still want her out!
Even though she does better than all would-be leadership challengers in a match-up against Nigel Farage, she still loses decisively in a head-to-head with the Reform leader. While the Conservative conference announced a host of big policies, most of these felt like a breathless copy of Reform’s big ideas. Deporting illegal migrants? Reform already offers this! Leaving the ECHR? Ditto. Plus, on immigration, Reform has an authenticity factor the Conservatives desperately lack.
As for scrapping stamp duty, Reform said in its last manifesto it plans to scrap stamp duty on properties priced below £750,000.
What about the Tories’ big plan to scrap business rates? Again, Reform has also promised to abolish business rates for small and medium-sized firms.
Worst of all for Badenoch, Farage and co don’t have a disastrous fourteen-year record of failure to defend.
True, Reform has less experience in government. That would be a stick with which to beat Farage except when your record is as woeful as the Conservatives you don’t really have much of a leg to stand on.
Not only will voters never forget Conservative betrayal, but recent Tory pledges are nowhere near enough to change voters’ hearts and minds. Not when Reform offers more.
From November, Tory party rules will enable say Robert Jenrick to attempt to dethrone Badenoch but, with her conference speech and policy announcements, the Tory boss likely bought herself some time.
The big test however will be if the Conservative conference was really enough to recapture the old Tory base which has decamped to Reform.
Will that base so easily forgive and forget broken promises on Brexit, immigration, crime and the economy? Will the public not question why the Tories didn’t get a grip on all this during the 2010-2024 period?
All parties will face their biggest test of this Parliament in May’s local, Scottish and Welsh elections. Reform must win big to cement its lead, while Labour and the Tories need to minimise their losses, not least to ensure PM Sir Keir Starmer and Badenoch actually keep their jobs.
The longer Reform holds its lead – and the longer those who backed Boris Johnson in 2019 keep faith with Farage in 2026 and beyond – the more likely Reform is to form the next government and Farage is to be PM.
Make no mistake, the next half-year is make or break for all sides. Expect a lot of mudslinging and plenty of political bloodletting between now and then.