Seeing the total number of illegal migrants arriving in Britain tick ever upwards must be like watching a countdown clock for his time in No 10 coming to an end for Keir Starmer. More than 60,000 have reached our shores since Labour took office, leaving the Prime Minister’s pledge to “smash the gangs” in tatters.
He has also faced the ignominy of a migrant – deported to France under his much-vaunted “one in, one out deal” with Emmanuel Macron – already returning to the UK on a small boat. All the while, Sir Keir’s poll ratings, and those of his party, continue to slump.
No wonder Nigel Farage, the favourite to boot the Labour leader out of Downing Street, said “illegals are laughing at us”.
Senior border force officials have been warning for months now that the PM’s efforts to tackle illegal migration will make no impact on the number of small boat crossings until 2026 at the earliest.
More than 11,000 migrants have reached Britain since the “one in, one out” scheme began on August 6.
This year’s arrivals have already surged past 36,816 – the total for the whole of 2024 – to 36,886.
Migration is seen as a major reason why Labour lost the recent Runcorn and Helsby by-election to Reform UK.
Such is its influence, the Welsh Senedd by-election in Caerphilly is expected to swing from Labour to Mr Farage’s party, with migration seen as a key issue for voters – even though the community has very few migrants.
The Home Office is understood to be optimistic about delivering on Sir Keir’s demand to cut the number of crossings significantly by the time of the next election, expected in 2029.
Insiders say there are already signs that greater international co-operation is paying off, with more intelligence-sharing helping to deliver a number of significant arrests and aid for countries along the smuggling routes disrupting the gangs’ operations.
Sir Keir has also identified the countries of the Western Balkans as key allies in the fight against illegal migration.
Agreements to tackle smuggling gangs have been signed with Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia and Kosovo.
But the PM has, so far, failed to get a country to host one of his Rwanda-style “return hubs”, although negotiations are under way with Kosovo.
The clock is ticking.