Sir Keir Starmer is going nowhere. Despite polls showing more people – across all political stripes – would pick Andy Burnham over the PM, we know Sir Keir will almost certainly block the Manchester mayor from even standing as an MP. Short of Burnham becoming a member of the Lords – something Sir Keir would even more decisively block – the former will be in no position to challenge for Labour leader. With Angela Rayner gone, surely the only serious leadership challenger left is Wes Streeting, but the health secretary’s ideological proximity to the PM undermines his attractiveness as an alternative.
This could be great news for Reform UK. Kemi Badenoch and Sir Keir are making Nigel Farage’s job much easier. Although May’s local elections would be the time for the Tories or Labour to axe their leaders, polling for the Tories, in particular, suggests it would make little difference.
And look at the polls for voting intentions. Despite their best efforts at respective party conferences, Labour and the Tories still trail Reform. YouGov, in its latest poll, in fact kept Reform seven points ahead of main rivals.
In fact, the numbers stayed exactly the same from YouGov’s last poll: Reform on 27 points, Labour on 20, and the Conservatives on 17. Ask yourself, if even after barnstorming conferences Labour and the Tories cannot seriously move the dial, what hope have they?
And this is with the Conservatives aping Reform policies on everything from illegal immigration to leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Voters want the real McCoy in Reform, not a pale imitation in the Conservatives.
I’d wager neither Sir Keir nor Badenoch will be going anytime soon. For starters, the PM will never allow Burnham to be in a position to challenge. And even if there was a defenestration of either party leader, would this really upset the party for Farage?