Shockwaves have been sent through the EU and Western alliance after the nationalist and pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu topped the first round of Romania’s presidential election.
This, in a country which while ostensibly backing Ukraine has seen support for the country fall. In a GLOBSEC Trends 2024 poll for instance, 55% of respondents in Romania picked Russia as the primary culprit for the war, although that was 10 percent lower than in 2023.
According to GLOBSEC, narratives around the alleged treatment of Ukraine’s Romanian minority led to a notable increase in the proportion of Romanians blaming Ukraine for the war.
Worryingly for the Western alliance – especially on the eve of Donald Trump’s second inauguration as US President – Georgescu has condemned the Nato ballistic missile defence shield based at Romania’s Deveselu military base as “a disgrace”.
Georgescu further questioned whether NATO would protect any of members if they were attacked by Russia, adding that his country’s best chance lay with “Russian wisdom” and the need for “neutrality”.
Although the role of Romanian President is largely symbolic, it speaks volumes that an ostensibly pro-Russian nationalist who warns of foreign businesses defrauding his country managed to come from nowhere to top the first round. That said, the office of President oversees Romania’s military and foreign relations, indicating a possible showdown over Romania’s commitment.
This will send alarm bells ringing in Brussels and other Western European capitals – not least London – as they grapple with the prospect of a weakened NATO alliance alongside a sense that Central and Eastern European countries never come on board with Western European norms and values.
For example, last year pro-EU centrist Donald Tusk became Poland’s new PM. Yet far from a new broom, Tusk has refused to endorse a pan-EU migration pact and has seemingly continued the previous nationalist government’s policies on migration, while his rainbow coalition has failed to radically reform abortion and LGBT laws.
Georgescu’s win also highlights the power of social media, as his campaign focused largely on TikTok. Just as President-elect Trump played a blinder hitting the podcast bro market, so Georgescu appears to have succeeded bypassing mainstream media and reaching a younger, conservative and male vote base.
For Britain, this could not come at a worse time. Having followed outgoing US President Joe Biden’s move in allowing his country’s equipment to be used directly against Russia, Sir Keir Starmer faces the prospect of either going it alone (assuming Trump revokes the use of US equipment against Russia) or sheepishly backtracking lest Britain finds itself out on a limb.
The Ukraine conflict speaks to a wider issue across Central and Eastern Europe about what kind of EU and Europe people in that region want. True, many like the economic opportunities afforded by the West.
But those opportunities have now gotten Central and Eastern European states to a point where they have less need of EU membership in the first place (most are set to be net contributors to the bloc in the years ahead).
Moreover, the EU’s east-west split means Central and Eastern EU states like Hungary, Poland and Romania flatly reject Western European ideas on mass immigration, LGBT rights, and secularism.
Georgescu’s victory speaks to that as much as the Ukraine war which, while the most immediate issue, must be seen in the context of a Europe-wide cultural Cold War where many view Russia as the guarantor of traditionalist values.
With Trump coming to office meanwhile, a victorious Georgescu may be even more emboldened, further weakening the NATO alliance and an EU unable to cohere around a single set of values.
Whatever else, this is a seismic moment for the EU, NATO and Ukraine. Sir Keir may talk a big game over the war in Eastern Europe. But in the months ahead – as dominoes start to fall in that region – we may see whether actions match the rhetoric.
