Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has announced a national inquiry into grooming gangs, having apparently accepted the recommendations of Baroness Louise Casey. This inquiry will investigate how institutions – including councils – failed victims. The PM has also launched an operation to investigate said gangs.
This all represents a quite significant U-turn by Sir Keir. Back in January, for example, the government stopped short of launching any national inquiry. While the Tories welcomed this latest move, there seems little doubt the Reform UK threat must have been a factor in the decision. Leader Nigel Farage cheered the “U-turn”, adding it was “time for victims to receive the justice they deserve and for perpetrators to face the full force of the law.”
Given that grooming gangs operated heavily in areas where Labour is directly fending off the Reform threat, it seems more than likely that political considerations played some role in this about-face. As with the winter fuel U-turn, stricter immigration controls and moves aimed at safeguarding the British steel industry, it feels like Labour’s policy agenda is increasingly governed by how much it wins over Reform voters.
Farage and his party set the agenda, having led the opinion polls for around two months, while smashing local elections in May alongside the Runcorn by-election win. Aside from British politics transforming into a two-horse race – with the Conservatives shut out of the national conversation – if Labour is merely going to ape Reform, then why wouldn’t voters just opt for the real deal?
In the “vibes” era, Farage cuts through, not least on social media where the Reform chief’s TikTok presence eclipses that of other politicians. Reform has carved out a new space straddling Left and Right, a form of patriotic populism making Labour and the Tories look positively monochrome by comparison.
Things could change fast of course. A Labour government led by Angela Rayner would certainly look a lot more in touch with the common man and woman. The Tories could also ditch Kemi Badenoch, although whether Robert Jenrick would radically change Conservative fortunes is anyone’s guess.
But, for now, Reform grows stronger. Even the Rupert Lowe saga and Zia Yusuf U-turn cannot seem to dent its poll lead. Failure on grooming gangs hardly endeared the Conservatives and Labour to voters, not least in the Reform-sympathetic Red Wall. Surely this recent Labour U-turn had an eye to the Farage threat. For many voters however it will be too little, too late to redeem Labour. Reform’s greatest risks now lie in screwing up local government leadership or a changing of the guard at the top for Labour or the Tories. Until then however, Reform marches on.