Karen Bass’ odds of winning LA mayor race surge after polls close

Karen Bass’ chances of winning the Los Angeles mayoral race surged on Polymarket Wednesday as bettors increasingly backed the incumbent after primary night.

Bass was listed with a 75% chance of winning the election on the prediction market by early Wednesday afternoon, according to Polymarket.

That was up 27% as traders digested Tuesday night’s early returns, which showed the incumbent mayor leading the field but still short of the majority needed to avoid a November runoff.

City Councilwoman Nithya Raman was listed second on Polymarket at just over 14%, while reality TV star-turned-mayoral contender Spencer Pratt had slipped to third at 12%.

The shift marked a reversal from Tuesday, when Pratt was running second on the platform behind Bass and ahead of Raman.

The market had seen more than $6.5 million in trading volume as of Wednesday afternoon, with Pratt accounting for the largest share at more than $4 million.

Bass’ market surge comes as she appeared positioned to advance to November, while Pratt and Raman battled for the second runoff spot.

Polymarket odds do not reflect vote share. Instead, they show what traders are willing to pay for contracts tied to each candidate’s chances of ultimately winning the race.

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