Handicapping going into NFL Week 2 is all about deciding which of the two teams overachieved in Week 1.
The Jaguars steamrolled the Browns to open the season, while the Broncos got dog-walked by the Chiefs in a shocking Monday night beatdown.
Oddsmakers have the Broncos listed as favorites but not by much, as they enter the game as 2.5-point favorites in their home opener.
Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction, best bets
There’s no sugarcoating how bad the Broncos looked against the Chiefs.
The Broncos totaled nine first downs on 48 plays; both were the fewest in the league for Week 1. They went 2-for-13 combined on third-and-fourth down conversions as the offense struggled to get anything going all night.
The defense fought the good fight for the first half, making life difficult for Patrick Mahomes, but couldn’t overcome the ground assault from Kenneth Walker that eventually wore them down.
Contrast that with the Jaguars, who took control of their game against the Browns in the first quarter and never looked back. Beating the Browns is the expectation if you’re a reputable team, but they handled business in the way you would expect a good team to do it.
Will that translate to Week 2?
Betting on the NFL?
I don’t think the Broncos defense is as bad as it looked in Week 1, and if the offense was able to sustain any momentum, that unit wouldn’t have been on the field as much as it was.
Luckily, the Broncos won’t be facing one of the best running backs in football. Instead, they’ll get a unit that might be the worst, which means they should be able to focus in on Trevor Lawrence.
Bo Nix was clearly rusty in his first game back after getting injured in the playoffs, and the Jaguars defense will test him. But the Broncos still have enough talent around Nix to make his life easier. He can’t turn the ball over the way he did in Week 1, and I’m sure head coach Sean Payton has drilled that into his offense all week.
Under Payton, the Broncos are 17-11 against the spread at home, and I’ll bet on them to bounce back in an early must-win spot.
The Pick: Broncos 2.5 (-118, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
