Virginians have one of the best track records in the country for electing winning presidents over the last 20 years.
Having only missed opting for the winner once in that time, in 2016, the state is a modern bellwether for choosing the country’s commander-in-chief. And voters there might just prefer their own governor for the job, according to a recent poll.
In a hypothetical match up between President Joe Biden and Virginia’s Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, the poll, conducted by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University in July, found that Virginians would elect Youngkin by seven points, 44% to 37%.
The poll tested two other potential 2024 races, between Biden and former President Donald Trump, along with Biden versus Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Neither had Youngkin’s success: Biden was favored over Trump by three points, while Biden and DeSantis split the imaginary vote, each receiving 41%. The remaining 18% said they either wouldn’t vote, would vote for someone else or were undecided.
A diverse battleground state with rural regions of red and metropolitan pockets of blue, Virginia has historically alternated between electing Republican and Democratic leaders, in presidential as well as gubernatorial races.
Youngkin’s win in 2021, after two terms of Democratic governors, was also a victory for the national GOP, coming off their loss of the White House and Senate in 2020.
The Virginia governor has so far not entered the 2024 presidential race, saying he is focused at the moment on the state’s midterm elections this November. But some donors and prominent figures in his party have nonetheless turned their attention to Youngkin.
But what are his own constituents saying about their governor’s presidential prospects? Here’s what you need to know.
‘It would be scary’: Virginia voters are divided on Youngkin’s education priorities
Rachel Colby, 31, told USA TODAY she would not want to see Youngkin’s name on the ballot next year, in large part because of his education policies.
“It would be scary if Virginia turned into the northern Florida,” Colby, a middle and high school band director in southwest Virginia, said. “It would be scary if he ran for president and had people supporting him.”
Under DeSantis’ leadership, Florida passed the Parental Rights in Education law, dubbed the “Don’t Say Gay” act by opponents, last spring. It banned instruction on sexual orientation or gender identity through third grade. The state’s board of education expanded the law to apply to all grades earlier this year.
Youngkin’s gubernatorial race hinged on the issue of education, especially one debate moment. After his opponent, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, commented, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach,” Youngkin’s campaign capitalized on Virginia parents’ anger.
In his term as governor, Youngkin is still most known for his school policies. That includes guidelines for transgender students from the Virginia Board of Education, which say school staff must use the name and pronouns on a student’s official record.
While lukewarm on Youngkin’s national chances, Curt Seright said he agrees with his governor and believes in parents having a say in school curriculum.
“I don’t want elementary schools to be a place where children are indoctrinated,” Seright, a 41-year-old minister in Blacksburg, Virginia, told USA TODAY. “I don’t want politics in grade schools.”
Matthew Ferrell, 38, lives in a rural area of western Virginia, where the majority of his neighbors are Republicans. Education, a hot-button issue in the state and country, and other social issues have led to a split in his community, he said.
Ferrell, CEO of a local septic company, himself said he thinks Youngkin is “toxic and detrimental” to the Virginia school system.
“I actually think that he’s abusive, and I think he’s dangerous, and I think that he thinks he’s right, which makes him even more dangerous,” Ferrell said.
Another Virginian who would not want to see their governor as president, Howard Giddings in Virginia Beach said he does not agree with any of Youngkin’s positions or policies.
“I don’t support anyone that puts their beliefs on another person. Whether it be sexual orientation, school choice or what can and cannot be taught in schools or anything like that. I served this country for 24 years in the military for people’s rights and choices,” Giddings, 66, said.
What do Virginians say about Youngkin’s presidential prospects?
Youngkin’s appeal to some in the GOP is his generally even-keeled persona, especially compared to DeSantis and Trump, both known for their more inflammatory statements and combative natures.
But this toned-down presence, combined with Youngkin’s relative inexperience – being governor is Youngkin’s entrance into politics – has Ferrell doubting the governor’s success as a national candidate, he said.
“I can’t turn on the TV without seeing DeSantis say something, and I don’t live in Florida. But I rarely see my personal governor except in newspaper articles,” Ferrell said. “I went to Auburn University, and I can’t stand Tommy Tuberville, but that man can go into any place in Alabama and be reveled. Youngkin can walk in most rooms here, I bet you most people wouldn’t know who he is.”
Despite supporting his governor, Seright said he doesn’t think Youngkin is ready to be president.
“To be honest, he’s kind of just a big unknown,” Seright said. “And unknowns sometimes can look pretty attractive when everybody else’s knowns are in the headlines.”
Who is supporting Youngkin for president?
Big names from the national Republican Party are already putting their weight behind Youngkin, turning to the Virginia governor in the wake of the DeSantis campaign’s ongoing stumbles.
Florida billionaire Thomas Peterffy recently wrote his second $1 million check to Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia political action committee. Once a major donor for DeSantis, Peterffy split with the Florida governor over a slate of issues, including abortion, and has since called Youngkin his “ideal candidate” for the GOP presidential nomination.
Also backing Youngkin, media mogul Rupert Murdoch has likewise moved away from DeSantis, The New York Times reported.
And earlier this month, Trump’s former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross hosted Youngkin at his mansion in the Hamptons for a meet-and-greet with GOP donors and leaders, including investor and billionaire Nelson Peltz, another ex-DeSantis backer.
