IRAN’S regime is bracing itself for fresh protests as Britain, France and Germany moved to reimpose international sanctions over Tehran’s failure to meet nuclear obligations. The so-called “E3” has written to the United Nations Security Council, initiating proceedings to trigger the snapback clause of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
If implemented, it would restore UN sanctions lifted under the deal and further isolate Tehran from global markets. Megan Sutcliffe, a senior analyst with the Sibylline strategic risk group, said the impact would be immediate. “In the coming days, this will likely trigger significant currency valuation fluctuations in Iran due to the risks of UN sanctions being reapplied,” she said.
“That would represent a further blow to the Iranian economy, which is already really quite battered and under significant pressure.
“This is likely to cause goods shortages and supply chain disruption in the coming days. And so, the risk of those shortages then triggering protests will be particularly high in major cities.”
Shahin Gobadi, of the opposition group National Council of Resistance of Iran, said: “The regime is engulfed in crises on all fronts. Facing a collapsing economy, persistent power outages, and even difficulties in providing water- it is terrified of another nationwide uprising.
“This fear has already driven it to launch a sweeping wave of arrests and executions.”
The move underscores mounting exasperation in Europe at Tehran’s refusal to fully cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Inspectors have been denied access to monitoring sites, even as Iran expands its enrichment programme.
“There has been a great amount of diplomatic goodwill from the E3 which has often been criticised,” said Sutcliffe.
“And over the past 10 years Iran has greatly developed its capabilities in terms of their physical infrastructure and in terms of more advanced centrifuges and other technical aspects of its nuclear programme.
“Unfortunately, we’re at a point in time where the regome now sees these developments as something it is fundamentally willing to walk back on.”
However, Sutcliffe said Iran may yet be given further time to comply.
“There’s also a realistic possibility this forms part of broader brinkmanship – essentially putting the gun to Iran’s head to trigger meaningful re-engagement with the United States. The timeline for that would be extremely tight – only until the first week of September for that approach to be effective.”
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi confirmed this week that a small team of inspectors has been allowed back into Iran.
But Sutcliffe said this could be interpreted as a strategy by the regime to “restrict the IAEA’s monitoring capabilities in order to maximise their leverage in negotiations.”
Thousands of Iranian dissidents are expected to gather in Brussels next week to demand the reimposition of sanctions on Tehran.
Gobadi added: “It is time to hold the regime accountable for its crimes. It must not be given any further unwarranted leeway on the nuclear issue.
“This is the message that tens of thousands of Iranians will echo in a major rally in Brussels on 6 September.”