Iranian officials suspect Israel may be behind a wave of mysterious fires and explosions that have struck dozens of locations across the country in recent weeks – from oil refineries and apartment blocks to roads and even a shoe factory. Three days ago, a blaze erupted at one of Iran’s main oil refineries in Abadan, a crucial facility for oil exports to China.
Publicly, officials blamed the fire – which killed one worker – on a pump leak. But three Iranian officials, including a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, told the New York Times they believed many recent incidents were acts of sabotage. They offered no evidence but said the spike in events since the end of last month’s 12-day war with Israel was too suspicious to ignore. Other attacks have damaged civilian apartment blocks or targeted judicial housing, fuelling panic and instability. The Islamic regime is notorious for its economic mismanagement – particularly in the energy sector, which is overseen by Iran’s notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
The IRGC has traditionally prioritised the financing of Middle Eastern proxy groups, channeling billions of dollars to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.
After last month’s war, which saw serious damage to Iran’s air defence systems, missile launchers and military bases, Tehran is reluctant to blame Israel openly for fear of triggering further conflict. But it has struggled to provide convincing alternative explanations for why gas blasts and fires are occurring almost daily.
There is precedent.
Before June’s open hostilities, Israel and Iran waged a covert shadow war through cyberattacks, drone strikes and sabotage.
Mossad has previously assassinated Iranian scientists and targeted key infrastructure, while Israeli-owned ships have come under attack in the Gulf.
Last month, Mossad’s chief gave a rare public speech celebrating the agency’s recent operations in Iran, vowing: “We will be there, just as we have been up to now.”
Iranian media have insisted many of the recent blazes are unrelated to sabotage. Officials cited weed burning near Mashhad airport and a garbage fire in Tehran.
Most cases, however, have been blamed on gas leaks, with Tehran’s fire chief pointing to poor safety and worn-out appliances.
But several explosions appear to bear the hallmarks of deliberate triggering.
In Qom, one blast destroyed part of a residential building, crushed a taxi, and scattered debris across an entire block.
Two Iranian officials said the unit had been rented by operatives who left gas running before disappearing.
Another case involved a judicial housing complex in Tehran which offers discounted homes to employees of the judiciary. The blast blew out walls and windows.
Iranian officials believe it was an attempt to send a message to Iran’s state-controlled prosecutors – the very officials responsible for jailing protesters and carrying out executions of regime critics.
Such tactics would follow earlier Israeli operations, which targeted other pillars of the regime, including its nuclear scientists.
Regional expert Megan Sutcliffe from Sibylline noted that, since the end of the war, “there have been numerous explosions that have essentially been unexplained within Iran – these have included weapons depots, whether that is at oil refineries or various storage facilities.”
She added: “I think what we can assess is that there are still major concerns among Iran’s security forces regarding Israel’s penetration of its intelligence networks, of its key economic industries, and so risks of further explosions and pursuant crackdowns on individuals associated with possible anti-government pro-Israel activity will likely continue intensifying in the coming months.”
However, she also pointed to other compounding factors.
She said: “When it comes to oil refineries, one thing that’s worth noting is that Iran is currently experiencing a major water crisis.
“We’ve seen, for example, government offices are going to be shut in Tehran this week and while that doesn’t necessarily refer exactly to Abadan, what it does indicate is that there’s a fundamental lack throughout Iran, including in agricultural regions.”
She added that water shortages would be especially damaging for energy-intensive sites, increasing the risk of accidents, saying: “This is all down to economic mismanagement that is endemic to sectors run by Iran’s IRGC.
“So, while it is possible that Israel is acting indecently, the effects of this mismanagement cannot be underestimated.”