Losses come in all shapes and sizes in betting, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a weirder one than what we witnessed from last week’s “Ugly Underdog.“
South Alabama scored 21 points in the second quarter against Kentucky and was up 21-14 with halftime approaching, but somehow the Jaguars were not able to cover the 20.5-point spread, handing us our first loss since Week 1. Perhaps it had something to do with giving up 390 rushing yards. Anyways, how about some good news? We’re on Rutgers against the defending champs this week.
There’s only one place to start our preview of Rutgers vs. Indiana, and that’s in Amherst, Mass.
You don’t need to remind any Scarlet Knights fans about their loss to UMass in Week 1, but I’ll do it anyways.
The Minutemen were five-score underdogs and riding a 16-game losing streak when they upset Rutgers, 37-21, in Piscataway. It was one of the first games of the entire college football season, but it was likely to go down as one of the most embarrassing results of the season. Or was it?
Don’t look now, but UMass is 4-0 and all the way down to 15/1 to win the MAC. That won’t make anybody at Rutgers feel much better, but it’s worth noting as we evaluate the Scarlet Knights for the rest of the season. It was a horrible loss. But it looks slightly less embarrassing these days.
It also helps that Rutgers has played better since the Minutemen routed them. The Scarlet Knights lost a close one on the road to Boston College in Week 2, and then came excruciatingly close to an upset over USC in Week 3. The Scarlet Knights followed that up with a 51-point win over Howard last time out. Nothing to write home about, but you can start to see the sun peeking out from behind the clouds.
While Rutgers is searching for existential answers, Indiana will bring the nation’s longest winning streak with them to New Jersey.
It’s hard to nitpick a team that won the national championship last year and hasn’t lost since Dec. 20, 2024, but the Hoosiers have yet to really click into top gear this season. That was certainly the case last week when they got everything they could handle from Northwestern in Bloomington.
That 29-23 win showed some cracks in Indiana’s armor, but there are other factors that can help Rutgers cover this 24.5-point spread. Most notably, this is a dreary schedule spot for Indiana.
Not only is this their first road game of the season, but their next two games are at Nebraska and then home against Ohio State. Something tells me Curt Cignetti won’t have an issue with taking his foot off the gas if this one is in the bag.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
We should also be helped by Indiana’s game plan. The Hoosiers are running the ball on 60 percent of their snaps this season, and I’d imagine that number will tick up after this game, as the likeliest scenario is an Indiana romp. That’s OK by us, as it will keep the clock moving, making it tougher for Indiana to get the requisite number of possessions to cover this huge number.
I’m not kidding myself by suggesting that Rutgers, a team that lost to UMass by 16 points at home, is in the same league as Indiana, but I’m deadly serious when I say that Rutgers’ improvement, the schedule spot and Indiana’s less-than-stellar showing last time out make the Scarlet Knights worth a bet Saturday.
The Play: Rutgers +24.5 (-118, BetMGM)
Season “Ugly Underdog” record: 3-2
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
