Is Reform on the verge of something big?
Starmer and his Labour Government, in just five months, have become incredibly unpopular. Kemi Badenoch’s Tories are nowhere near being trusted. The public are exceptionally unhappy, and Reform is beginning to capture their attention.
A majority in Britian are crying out for radical change. They want an end to illegal immigration, a decent standard of living, working public services, a single tier policing and justice system, fair taxes spent responsibly, and an end to the woke agenda. People now know they’re not getting any of this from Starmer.
Reform UK got over 14 per cent support in the General Election, and they recently polled 24 per cent, ahead of Labour on 23 per cent. The Conservatives led on 26 per cent. Farage is more popular than any political leader, Starmer is the most unpopular.
But all is not rosy in the Reform UK garden. Too many missteps in the next 12 months and we could see Reform stumble. Not only would this be bad for the party, but it would be tragic for a public that are crying out for change.
Consider the party’s leadership.
Farage is one of the best political communicators in a generation, Lee Anderson has the common touch, Rupert Lowe and Richard Tice make exceptionally impressive parliamentarians, James McMurdock has taken to politics like a duck to water.
Ben Habib, the former deputy leader, is in a similar mould, highly intelligent, articulate, popular with the Reform membership – surely the party would have been better to keep him. Reform needs to be a broad church, not one stricken by division and disrespect.
The party have begun to win a few council by-elections, but they need to be winning far more if they’re to have any chance of making serious inroads at future elections.
It’s as though Reform are too focused on the next transfer, the glitzy announcement, the big reveal press conference, but are failing to get on with the knitting. Recruiting Tim Montgomerie, the leading Conservative thinker is great, it appeals to the Westminster bubble, but it won’t deliver a single vote for Reform.
If you were to score political party election machines out of 10 Labour would get full marks, the Lib Dems eight or nine, the new Muslim Independents five or six, the Conservatives four or five and Reform UK one or two.
The main reason Labour and the Lib Dems do so well, even with hopeless leadership and poor policies, is because they know exactly who supports them – they have detailed data – they have lots of activists, they target seats, and they get the vote out. This is not going to change.
Reform’s new chairman, the successful businessman Zia Yusuf, has begun to professionalise the party dismissing old staff, creating targeted election teams and recruiting new regional directors. It’s said he’s even recruited ex-CCHQ personnel which, as one Conservative MP pointed out, might not be such a good thing.
Running a political party is not like running a business – you must take people with you, it’s a voluntary army that needs nurturing, donors can’t be ignored, old staffers need looking after. And you need a party boss who is 100% focused on the machine, not enjoying the media.
Talking of businesses, Reform also needs a structure that’s not a limited company, you need members to have some buy-in, and that promise still appears distant.
The leadership of Reform UK have some crucial steps to take over the next few months. If Nigel and his top team get it right, they’ll be on the road to victory. If Reform stumble they and the public will be in an even more desperate situation. Only time will tell.
– Simon Danczuk is a former Labour MP who stood for Reform UK in the Rochdale by-election earlier this year.
