Israel’s war with Iran has brought to the fore the question of how the world would react to a nuclear-armed Iran. Understandably, the prospect of a known adversary possessing a weapon of mass destruction is cause for concern for people across the UK.
Many want to know how well prepared the UK is for the possibility of a country possessing nuclear weapons, however remote a possibility an attack on the UK might be. Currently, Iran’s enrichment of uranium is assessed by Israel to be close to levels required to build a nuclear weapon, although US intelligence from just a few months ago contradicts this assessment. Even if we suppose that the Israeli assessment is correct, that doesn’t mean they are close to having a weapon, only the nuclear material required to begin the process of creating a weapon.
To actually develop a nuclear missile, it’s believed it would take up to another year – providing that Iran was able to do so without any significant setbacks. Once in possession of a nuclear weapon, they would lack the quantity and the range required to reach the UK.
Currently, its conventional weapons have a maximum range of up to 1,200 miles according to estimates by US intelligence.
However, following the US attack on their nuclear sites on Saturday evening, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened that Iran’s allies were prepared to provide nuclear weapons to Tehran.
So, all of this poses the question, if Iran were theoretically in possession of a nuclear weapon with the capability to strike the UK, how long would it take to reach us?
Iran and Russia are virtually the same distance from the UK, with Iran 3,700 miles away and Russia 3,650 miles.
Professor Andrew Futter, a senior University of Leicester academic and leading nuclear weapons expert believes that it would take just 15 minutes for a nuclear weapon to reach the UK, giving most people in the vicinity of its target little time to react.
He told MyLondon: “It wouldn’t give us time to do anything. Government officials might be ok, there is a bunker under Whitehall and some places VIPs can hide.”
If a missile were launched at the UK, the country’s ability to defend itself makes for grim reading.
Currently, the UK does not have the capability to defend itself against a concentrated intercontinental ballistic missile attack, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) which warned that effective defence systems for European countries remain an “ambition” rather than a reality.
The UK’s recently released Strategic Defence Review has identified paths to develop its defences, but this will take time and crucially money,
Prof Futter believes the UK has slightly more protection from the Middle East than it does from Russia. He said: “The nascent US and NATO missile defence systems would have some capability against launches from the Middle East but not Russia.
“It has virtually zero capability against Russian missiles that can deploy countermeasures.
“None of us have a crystal ball, but I don’t see a nuclear attack on the UK being likely. It would be an enormous escalation and suicidal.”