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High-stakes prediction shows Spencer Pratt surging in LA mayor’s race

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Last updated: May 8, 2026 6:20 pm
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Published: May 8, 2026
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Spencer Pratt has leaped over socialist Los Angeles Councilwoman Nithya Raman in the mayoral race, according to a popular prediction platform.

Pratt’s odds of winning stood at 28% on the betting platform Kalshi as of Friday morning, with Raman’s odds plummeting to 20%. Incumbent LA Mayor Karen Bass retained the top spot with 48% odds of winning.


Spencer Pratt speaking at the NBC4 and Telemundo 52 California Gubernatorial and Los Angeles Mayoral Debates.
Spencer Pratt’s odds of winning the mayor’s race stood at 28% as of Friday. Jon Rou/LMU

Last Thursday, Kalshi had Pratt’s odds of winning at 25% compared to Bass’ 18%, marking a nearly 10% surge for the independent in less than a week. At the time, Raman led overall with a 60% chance.

Pratt’s latest surge occurred after a mayoral debate Wednesday that viewers saw as a resounding win for the former reality TV star.

“I’m confident I’m probably going to win with 51% [of the vote] on June 2nd, because I don’t do a political message,” Pratt said after the debate.

“What people are confused on, the Democrats all are behind me. It’s just the socialists and the communists that don’t back me.”


Spencer Pratt, Mayor Karen Bass, and Nithya Raman at the NBC4 and Telemundo 52 California Gubernatorial and Los Angeles Mayoral Debates.
Pratt’s latest surge occurred after a mayoral debate Wednesday that viewers saw as a resounding win for the former reality TV star. Jon Rou/LMU

Pratt has drawn praise as a serious candidate from several political experts, including those on the left.

Veteran Democrat political consultant Michael Trujillo, who worked on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaigns, said Pratt’s performance is making waves on all sides of Los Angeles’ political spectrum.

“Unfortunately, my entire life is talking to people in the industry, but I can report that everyone was pleasantly — or unpleasantly — surprised by Spencer Pratt’s debate performance,” Trujillo told The California Post.

“Spencer had a very low bar to jump over, and he did that with many feet to spare.”

The candidates will face off in a June 2 primary that will crown an outright winner if one receives more than 50% vote. If not, the contest will proceed to a November general election.


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