Continental high-pressure systems could unleash blistering heat across Wales and England during the second week of August. Weather map models are predicting a prolonged heatwave lasting a week or potentially longer, with temperatures rocketing to a sweltering 37C in some areas.
GFS model projections indicate the heat will begin building from Sunday, August 3, before reaching its peak on Sunday, August 10. Should this materialise, Monmouthshire could experience scorching highs of 35C whilst the North Wales coast faces temperatures of 31C. The forecasts suggest the intense heat on Monday, August 11, with a blistering 37C predicted for central England.
Blazing conditions from Spain and Portugal are presently being blocked by low-pressure systems trapped by the Jet Stream. An Azores high is pushing into southwest Britain, establishing a north-south weather divide expected to persist into early August, with rainfall further north and more settled conditions in the south. However, by the second week of August, the Azores high could burst free from its constraints.
Netweather meteorologist Ian Simpson wrote over the weekend: “Longer range outputs from the GFS model indicate that, from there, it won’t take much to get some of that hot weather in Spain and Portugal spreading back northwards through western Europe, should one of those ridges of high pressure head eastwards into central Europe.
“This is a long way off, and substantial heat through Britain and France looks unlikely for at least another 10 days.”
However, the Global Forest System (GFS) suggests warmth beginning to develop next weekend, from Sunday, August 3, initially across southern Britain.
The scorching conditions may continue across England into the subsequent week, the GFS model indicates.
Predictions at this distance remain highly uncertain, and models don’t all agree. The ECM forecast, for instance, suggests any surge of heat across Britain might fail to penetrate Wales and northern England.
Nevertheless, the Met Office indicated there are “hints of a more settled August” and “tentative signs of a more settled spell developing” early in the month. The National Weather Service remains uncertain about the forecast.
“Some models are hinting at a Scandinavian high building to the north of the UK, which could bring drier and warmer conditions,” it said. However, confidence remains low at this range.”
