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Reading: GOP Rep. Mike Lawler leads Dem Cait Conley in battleground NY House district: new internal poll
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GOP Rep. Mike Lawler leads Dem Cait Conley in battleground NY House district: new internal poll

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Last updated: October 2, 2026 11:32 am
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Published: October 2, 2026
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Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) has pulled ahead of his Democratic rival Cait Conley by a narrow three points in the neck-and-neck battleground race, new internal polling shared exclusively with The Post shows.

The incumbent GOP pol leads with 50% of the vote compared with Conley’s 47% in the 17th Congressional District battle, according to the Lawler campaign’s internal poll of 400 likely voters, conducted Sept. 28 to 30.

The poll, administered by McLaughlin & Associates, has a margin of error of 4.9% — further evidence of the key race remaining a true toss-up.


U.S. Rep. Michael Lawler speaks at a press conference at the Indian Point nuclear facility.
A new poll has New York GOP Rep. Mike Lawler ahead of Cait Conley in the race for the 17th District House seat. Lone Pine Press for NY Post

The new survey comes a day after a PIX 11 and Emerson College poll showed Conley — a West Point grad and Biden administration national security official — with a razor-thin two-point lead over Lawler.

The Emerson-PIX 11 poll was conducted Sept. 27 to 29.

The Lawler campaign poll showed the second-term congressman up 92% to Conley’s 6% among Republicans, and up 52% to Conley’s 40% amongst independents.

It also shows Lawler with a considerable 20% of Democrats, to Conley’s 79%.

The 17th District, covering Westchester, Rockland, Putnam and Dutchess Counties, was carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 and is one of Democrats’ most sought-after pickups in November’s midterm elections.


Democratic congressional candidate Cait Conley speaks during a rally in Tarrytown, N.Y.
Democratic congressional candidate Cait Conley speaks during a rally in Tarrytown on Sept. 16, 2026. AP Photo/Seth Wenig

Lawler’s survey also included polling showing GOP gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman leading Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul 51% to 47% in the key suburban district.

Blakeman did slightly better than Lawler among independents with 55% to Hochul’s 37%.

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