Across the pond in London, the UFC has a Fight Night card on the horizon.
Beginning at 1 p.m. ET, we can expect a long night of fights, as only six of the 13 fights are expected to end inside the distance.
It’s shaping up to be a title eliminator in the main event, as Lerone Murphy faces Movsar Evloev.
Both are undefeated challengers, so someone’s record has to give to clear out the featherweight title picture.
Below, we analyze, give predictions and offer best bets to target for the entire card of Saturday’s matinee showcase live from England’s capital.
UFC Fight Night London predictions
Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy
Murphy has the benefit of fighting this bout at home, and despite being undefeated, he is a big underdog Saturday, coming in at +200 odds at the time of writing.
Evloev is your prototypical grappling savant, but the UFC appears very frustrated by him for a variety of reasons.
He has pulled out of five bouts in his UFC career, and he’s not exactly the most high-energy fighter. As a result of his grappling, he’s usually just fighting for position over submission or significant ground strikes.
Evloev fought Aljamain Sterling last time out in December 2024, and the fight had just 20 significant strikes, 10 takedowns and was never close to being finished.
The fight is -295 odds to go the distance, which will surely upset the promotion that clearly wants finishes.
As for a betting angle to this fight, there are a few ways to target it, though none are the most appealing if you think the way I do.
Evloev has a 100-percent decision rate in the UFC (nine fights), while Murphy has a 70-percent decision rate in 10 fights.
That’s an obscene amount of decisions, but the betting angle to target is the Under on significant strikes in both the total and individual fighters.
Head on over to PrizePicks, Underdog, Sleeper, Dabble, Chalkboard, Betr Pick or any of the DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) apps and bet on the Under significant strikes props for each fighter.
Currently, Murphy is projected at 58.5 significant strikes on Underdog (-115), while Evloev is set for 68.5 significant strikes.
Murphy has cleared this number just four times in five fights and is expected to be wrestled from start to finish in this fight, while Evolev has cleared 68.5 just four times in nine fights, including just once in his last five.
This prop also covers cases where the fight ends earlier, as in theory, there is less time for significant damage accumulation.
PREDICTIONS: Evloev Under 68.5 significant strikes (-115, Underdog) | Murphy Under 58.5 significant strikes (-115, Underdog)
Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson
Michael “Venom” Page is certainly the name value in this welterweight matchup against Sam Patterson.
Patterson is moving up in weight, while Page is moving down in this matchup after styling on Jared Cannonier for three rounds in a decision win.
Page will be looking to avoid the takedown throughout the fight, as Patterson is nowhere near the striker that Page is, even at this point in his career.
What’s interesting is the age difference, as Patterson is 29 and Page is 38 with tons of miles on his legs.
Page will likely TKO Patterson on the feet, but his antics and styling are something to be concerned about.
Overall, I like this matchup for Page and I think he should be a bigger favorite.
Target the fight to start Round 2 and Page’s moneyline.
PREDICTION: Page moneyline + fight starts Round 2 (+100, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
UFC Fight Night London picks
Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell Jr.: Riley by decision (+135, Caesars)
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane: Over 0.5 rounds (-250, DraftKings)
Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan: Fight goes the distance (+121, theScore Bet)
Kurtis Campbell vs. Danny Silva: Campbell by decision (+130, FanDuel)
Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola: Jones inside the distance (+300, BetMGM)
Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita: Keita by KO (+170, Bally Bet)
Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco: Pinto by decision (+600, FanDuel)
Mantas Kondratavicius vs. Antonio Trocoli: Kondratavicius by submission (+380, BetRivers)
Louie Sutherland vs. Brando Pericic: Sutherland ML (+225, theScore Bet)
Shaqueme “Shem” Rock vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady: Rock moneyline (+110, BetMGM)
Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira: Fight goes the distance (-225, DraftKings)
Melissa Mullins vs. Luana Carolina: Fight goes the distance (-245, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
