Live from Las Vegas, UFC 326.
The fighting promotion returns on Saturday night for one of the better fight cards of the year, with prospects and veterans throughout a wild 13-fight card this weekend.
Eight of the 13 fights are projected to end inside the distance, so expect plenty of violence this weekend.
In a rare change of pace, submission is the most likely outcome in two of these fights and the second-most likely in many more, as grappling could be a theme beginning at 5 p.m. ET on Paramount+ before switching over to CBS at 8 p.m. ET.
UFC 326 predictions
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira
These two fought many moons ago, as Max Holloway defeated Charles Oliveira by TKO in the first round back in 2015.
That fight was at featherweight, while this one will take place 10 pounds higher at lightweight (155 lbs.).
We only saw about 90 seconds of that fight as Oliveira was hurt early in that bout with a neck injury
Holloway is a solid -225 favorite on Saturday, while Oliveira opened as a +130 underdog and that line has moved to +185.
Will “Do Bronx” be able to successfully grapple against “Blessed Holloway?”
That’s the major question to answer, though there’s no true way to answer it.
Oliveira has no questions for me about his cardio; he’s gone five rounds against Michael Chandler and looked fresh as a daisy in round five while also competing very well in a three-round bout with top contender Arman Tsarukyan.
Don’t expect anyone to tire here. Oliveira will come forward while Holloway will shuffle around the outside of the octagon and “stick and move.”
That’s how I see this fight going, for better or worse, the stakes are high.
I expect that the winner of this fight will get Conor McGregor in July.
PREDICTION: Holloway by decision (+285, BetRivers)
Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder fought five times in the last year, when he was defeated by Brandon Allen last time out as a favorite.
A big fight that could have seen him get a title bout if he won. The loss has significantly decreased everyone’s thoughts on de Ridder, who is a massive +215 underdog against Caio Borralho.
Borralho is an excellent striker, though he will likely have a size and grappling disadvantage in this fight.
It is important to note that this is a three-round fight, after both of these fighters fought in five-round main events last time.
I see two fighters who lost as favorites in big fights last time, but it feels like Borralho is being given a pass while de Ridder is being heavily punished.
There’s value here on de Ridder, and you would be wise to target him in a variety of ways in this co-main event.
PREDICTION: Fight goes the distance (-144, FanDuel) | Reinier de Ridder +3.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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UFC 326 full card picks
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira: Holloway by decision (+285, BetRivers)
Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder: Fight goes the distance (-144, FanDuel) | Reinier de Ridder +3.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr.: Font by decision (+330, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson: Dober by decision (+575, bet365)
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira: Over 1.5 rounds (-106, BetMGM)
Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long: Garbrandt by decision (+300, FanDuel)
Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage: Brundage ML (+650, BetRivers)
Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes: Pass
Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel: Cody Durden (+133, Kalshi)
Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar: Fight goes the distance (-138, FanDuel)
Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay: Tobias by submission (+190, Fanatics).
JeongYeong Lee vs. Gaston Bolanos: Fight goes the distance (+140, Caesars Sportsbook) Fight canceled due to weight issues.
Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato: Fernandez ML for parlays
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