There are a number of similarities between Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi.
They’re both Italian. They’re roughly the same age. And on Friday, they’ll be playing the biggest match of their lives. Oh, and nobody expected them to be here.
The winner of this Italian Derby will make it to the final of the French Open.
The bookmakers are siding with Cobolli as a -250 favorite.
French Open: Cobolli vs. Arnaldi odds, prediction
Despite all the similarities between Cobolli and Arnaldi off the court, they are quite different from one another when they step over the white lines.
While Cobolli, the No. 10 seed at Roland Garros, has shown he can play a dogged, grinding style of tennis on the clay when the situation calls for it, his game is built around his offensive instincts and toolkit.
Against most opponents, Cobolli tries to be the aggressor, relying on his forehand to dictate rallies and try to grab the reins of every point he can. That approach has worked to this point, as the 24-year-old has dropped just two sets and only two of his opponents lasted more than three hours against him.
That said, Cobolli will face a very different opponent in Arnaldi.
While his vanquished foes like Felix Auger-Aliassime and Learner Tien also want to be on the front foot, his countryman Arnaldi will be happy to sit back and defend all night. He’s there to outlast you, not outplay you.
A lot will be made of Arnaldi’s marathon matches. He’s logged more time on court en route to a major semifinal than any player since the ATP began tracking matches in 1991, but he caught a break in the quarterfinal when Matteo Berrettini retired in the middle of the second set.
Arnaldi should be as fresh as he’s been since Round 1 for this encounter.
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Cobolli may be able to play Arnaldi off the court, but the same could have been said of the first five opponents that the latter has faced in this tournament. Each of them wanted to be the aggressor, but they couldn’t dispatch the World No. 104, and he made them pay for it.
The odds are good enough to bet on that happening again Friday afternoon.
The Play: Arnaldi moneyline (+198, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
