Territory, sovereignty and royal succession: the French and English have battled over some of history’s highest stakes.
You can add a bronze medal to that list on Saturday.
The World Cup’s consolation prize is not what many expected France to be playing for when they opened as tournament favorites wielding soccer’s biggest game breaker. But alas, Lionel Messi is not ready to cede that claim to Kylian Mbappé.
That was crystal clear when Messi engineered a fourth consecutive knockout-round comeback against England by assisting the equalizer in the 85th minute before setting up Lautaro Martínez’s stoppage-time winner to propel Argentina back into the final to defend their title.
With that pair of assists, he leapfrogged Mbappé as the new odds-on favorite in the Golden Boot odds market — even though they remain tied with eight goals apiece. Mbappé, who has scored at least one goal in five of seven games, remains within reach for the award. A goal or two assists against England would put him in position to win, provided Messi fails to produce anything in the final.
France vs. England prediction, best bet
The only two matches in which Mbappé failed to find the scoresheet came against Spain — a result that can be excused against the tournament’s most dominant possession side — and Norway. Even without a goal from their superstar, France’s depth carried the load, as his teammates responded with a 4-1 demolition of the Norwegians.
That depth makes the French a heavy favorite over the English in bookmakers’ view: Les Bleus are -215 to win the match and still juiced to -110 to do so in 90 minutes.
After five weeks of demanding tournament soccer, fresh legs are going to be critical, and France’s replacements boast the international edge in Rayan Cherki, N’Golo Kante, Ibrahima Konate and Warren Zaire-Emery.
The contrast in emotional momentum is heavy. It’ll be tough for The Three Lions to pull their morale out from the dumps after letting the semifinal slip through their fingers. France’s motivation not only pertains to Mbappé’s accolades, but also Didier Deschamps, who will be stepping down from coaching France after 14 historic years following this match.
Deschamps hasn’t needed to rely on constant pressure; he’s built a system that can win on defensive structure and a punishing counterattack. It’s worked across the board: France leads the World Cup in expected goals at 14.6, fueled by their tournament-leading number of big chances created.
This is despite being ranked 10th in possession — a department in which Les Bleus are still three percentage points better than England.
On the defensive front, France had won seven straight matches before Spain and navigated the knockout stage with three consecutive clean sheets against Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco.
England’s Thomas Tuchel doesn’t have the same trust right now. He’s been lambasted over the last few days for the defensive approach he took against Argentina after his side had the 1-0 lead. Dropping back allowed the Argentines constant pressure instead of forcing them to worry about England’s pace on the counterattack. Tuchel’s substitutions left England without an attacking outlet once Argentina equalized and with Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham isolated, they were exposed.
This was all just 72 hours ago, while France has had an extra day of rest, so backing Les Bleus on the 90-minute moneyline at DraftKings is a worthy move.
The play: France 90-minute moneyline (-115, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
